Wildfires bring a state of catastrophe to a Chilean region again
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 30 Apr 2027, the President decrees a constitutional state of exception of catastrophe for wildfires covering all or part of at least one Chilean region, published in the Diario Oficial.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- President Kast launched the 2026-27 fire plan and said Chile must prepare for a summer that will be hard; officials cite vegetation grown after heavy El Niño rains [3]
Why it matters
Chile decreed a state of catastrophe for wildfires in Valparaíso in February 2024 and in Biobío and Ñuble in January 2026. A preventive emergency covers 13 regions to March 2027, and President Kast warned on 27 Oct 2026 of a hard summer.
Why Likelihood 5 Twice in 36 months (Feb 2024, Jan 2026), so not below 3. Pushes: decrees in two of the last three seasons; an official finding of a structural rise in fire risk; the President's warning of a hard summer. Brakes: a national plan and the preventive emergency in force; no source forecasts a decree.
The other facts on file (4)
- State of catastrophe in Biobío and Ñuble declared 18 Jan 2026: at least 19 dead, 75 hurt, about 29,000 hectares burned, about 300 homes destroyed in Biobío, over 1,500 people displaced [1] (19 Jan 2026)
- Preventive emergency for wildfire threat in 13 regions, June 2026 to March 2027, citing a CONAF report of a structural change in fire risk and a 159% rise in area burned in 2016-2026 on the decade before [2] (26 Jun 2026)
- Interior decree 84 of 2 Feb 2024 declared Marga Marga and Valparaíso provinces zones affected by catastrophe [4] (3 Feb 2024)
- President Boric decreed a state of exception of catastrophe in Valparaíso and Marga Marga provinces for the forest fires [5] (2 Feb 2024)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 30 Apr 2027, the President decrees a constitutional state of exception of catastrophe for wildfires covering all or part of at least one Chilean region, published in the Diario Oficial.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Forestry and pulpLarge fires in the centre-south burn plantations (Strature's view).
- Roads and portsA fire that needs a decree can cut road links in the affected provinces (Strature's view).
- InsurersLost homes fall on insurers and the state (Strature's view); about 300 homes were destroyed in Biobío in January 2026 [1].
Sectors 4
- Forestry pulp
- Agriculture and food
- Ports and logistics
- Banks and insurers
Countries 1
- Chile primary
Who is exposed
No figure on file: Chile.
- Sectors
- Forestry pulp, Agriculture and food, Ports and logistics, Banks and insurers
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
A managed season
Fires stay under red alerts.
- S2
One regional decree
A large fire brings a decree for one or two regions.
- S3
A megafire year
Several regions under decree at once.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | March 2027 passes with no decree |
| S2 | A red alert with evacuations in Biobío, Ñuble or Valparaíso |
| S3 | Decrees in two regions in one week |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Jan 2027 Peak of the fire season, when the 2024 and 2026 decrees fell [1] Tentative · Window
- Mar 2027 End of the preventive emergency in 13 regions [2] Declared · Outside event
- 30 Apr 2027 End of the scored window [2] Declared · Strature date
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Connected in Strature
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Suman 19 muertos por incendios forestales en las regiones del Biobío y Ñuble de Chile. La Razón · 19 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Decreto exento 1.142, de 2 de junio de 2026, declara emergencia preventiva por amenaza de incendios forestales (CVE 2830725). Diario Oficial de la República de Chile, Ministerio del Interior · 26 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- "Puede ser un verano complejo": Kast lanza plan de protección contra incendios forestales. Emol · 27 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Decreto 84, de 2 de febrero de 2024, declara zonas afectadas por catástrofe las provincias de Marga Marga y Valparaíso (CVE 2450122). Diario Oficial de la República de Chile, Ministerio del Interior · 3 Feb 2024 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Presidente Boric decreta estado de excepción en las provincias de Valparaíso y Marga Marga por los incendios forestales. Radio Agricultura · 2 Feb 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks