Jet fuel limits hit a Portuguese airport
The test Between 28 Oct 2026 and 27 Oct 2027, a notice to airmen, the airport operator or the fuel suppliers at Lisbon, Porto or Faro airport cap the jet fuel uplift per aircraft, or suspend refuelling, for three days or more in a row because of a fuel shortage (a cap imposed by the government or a national authority counts under our EU fuel rationing risk, not here).
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- EU Oil Coordination Group: diesel and jet tight, no physical shortage [6]
- IEA: record diesel prices mid-September; Brent futures near US$107 and North Sea Dated near US$134; Middle East product shipments below half of pre-war; Q4 gasoil shortfall; restocking unlikely before H2 2027 [5]
- Non-resident nights +1.9% to about 7m in Aug 2026; Canada +11.2%; accommodation revenue EUR 1.1bn [9]
Why it matters
Sines can make up to 80% of Portugal's jet fuel; the rest is imported, mostly May to October, and 77% of 2025 imports by value came from Asia and the Gulf. Portugal came through summer 2026 without airport limits, but the IEA sees gasoil supply short of demand in the last quarter of 2026 and no restocking before the second half of 2027, and IATA warned of possible last-quarter shortages. Portugal's airports handled 73.75 million passengers in 2025, about 86% at Lisbon, Porto and Faro.
Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: Gulf and Asian import dependence; IEA fourth-quarter gasoil shortfall and no restocking before H2 2027; IATA's last-quarter warning; Italian airport limits. Brakes: Sines covers most demand and imports moved to the Atlantic basin; no limit through the 2026 summer; no physical EU shortage on 21 Oct.
The other facts on file (7)
- Sines can supply up to 80% of annual jet use; Asian markets incl. the Gulf 77% of jet imports by value in 2025 (94.5% in 2024); Kuwait about EUR 250m of about EUR 530m (low-confidence source) [1] (1 Jun 2026)
- Galp to favour US, West African and European imports; 2026 imports May to October; no disruption expected; Lisbon reserve fed by tankers from CLC Aveiras, piped from Sines [2] (23 Apr 2026)
- Argus (Eurostat data), reported by 24noticias (low confidence): Portugal's jet stocks about four months if limits on oil trade through Hormuz continued [3] (3 Apr 2026)
- IATA's Schvartzman: summer supply fine; potentially some shortage in the last quarter; too early to say [4] (2 Jun 2026)
- Four Italian airports capped short-haul uplift at 2,000 litres per aircraft in early April 2026 [7] (6 Apr 2026)
- All Portuguese airports 73.75m passengers in 2025, about 86% at Lisbon (49.0%), Porto (23.0%) and Faro (14.1%); Lisbon 36.1m; Faro 10.4m [8] (12 Feb 2026)
- April 2019 tanker-driver strike: Faro reached emergency fuel reserves; refuelling suspended [11] (16 Apr 2019)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 28 Oct 2026 and 27 Oct 2027, a notice to airmen, the airport operator or the fuel suppliers at Lisbon, Porto or Faro airport cap the jet fuel uplift per aircraft, or suspend refuelling, for three days or more in a row because of a fuel shortage (a cap imposed by the government or a national authority counts under our EU fuel rationing risk, not here).
Not under wayGoods 1
- Jet fuel
Sectors 4
- Airlines
- Airports
- Tourism
- Hotels
Straits 1
Who is exposed
- Sectors
- Airlines, Airports, Tourism, Hotels
- Goods
- Jet fuel
- Straits
- Strait of Hormuz
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Atlantic supply holds
Sines and Atlantic-basin cargoes cover demand through summer 2027.
- S2
Tight but flying
Prices stay high and some routes are cut, with no fuel cap.
- S3
Caps at the pump
A Gulf or Sines outage forces uplift limits at one airport.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Galp import contracts announced for May 2027 |
| S2 | Airlines' summer 2027 schedules below 2026 |
| S3 | A NOTAM limiting uplift at Faro or Lisbon |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 24 Nov 2026 Final vote on the 2027 budget (Chega seeks a VAT cut on fuel) [10] Declared · Outside event
- May 2027 Usual start of jet import season [2] Tentative · Window
- 27 Oct 2027 End of the scored window [6] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
Sines makes most of the country's jet fuel, and Galp has shifted imports to the Atlantic basin. If other European airports run short, Portugal's own refining is an edge for its tourism.
Connected in Strature
- Strait of Hormuz
- Portugal
- Kuwait
- United Kingdom
- France
- Spain
- Germany
- A second EU country rations diesel or jet fuel Shares a channel: A government cap counts there; supplier or airport limits count here.
- A big fuel exporter bans or halts diesel exports to protect its home market Driven by: World gasoil and jet tightness drives Portugal's import risk.
- IEA members agree a second emergency oil stock release Driven by: Thin stock buffers leave less cover for a shortfall.
Sources
11 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Quase todo o jet fuel para a aviacao importado por Portugal vinha do Golfo e da Asia. Observador · 1 Jun 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Producao nacional cobre 80% do consumo de jet fuel e Galp tem alternativas para o restante (Lusa). DNoticias · 23 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Aeroportos portugueses podem ficar sem combustivel de aviacao em quatro meses. 24noticias (Sapo) · 3 Apr 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- IATA aponta limitacoes do aeroporto de Lisboa como maior risco para Portugal no verao. ECO · 2 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Oil Market Report, October 2026. International Energy Agency · 14 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Oil Coordination Group discusses EU fuel market developments. European Commission, DG Energy · 22 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Jet fuel crisis: rationing triggered at four airports in Italy. Euronews · 6 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Passageiros nos aeroportos nacionais sobem 4,7% em 2025 para mais de 73 milhoes (INE). Observador · 12 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Turismo acelera receitas em agosto para 1,1 mil milhoes de euros. Dormidas de nao residentes crescem 1,9%. ECO · 30 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- El OE2027 llega al Parlamento con viabilidad asegurada por el PS. Euronews · 8 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Voo da TAP ja foi cancelado: aeroporto atingiu reservas de emergencia de combustivel. Postal do Algarve · 16 Apr 2019 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks