Sign in Get in touch
World risk · Energy and resources

Bhutan cuts power to energy-heavy industry in the 2026-27 dry season

The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Mar 2027 Bhutan's government or its power utility orders a cut or a quota on power to energy-intensive industry (ferro-alloys, data centres, crypto mining).

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.

Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth3
Depth1
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. WMO expects a very strong El Niño into 2027 [4]

Why it matters

Bhutan's hydropower falls in the dry winter while demand keeps rising: the winter peak reached 1,026.44 MW against about 450 MW of firm output. Last winter Bhutan more than doubled its power imports from India to cover the gap. If imports fall short, policy puts industry last in line for power.

Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: demand outrunning winter supply; a very strong El Niño; industry last in the deficit priority order. Brake in force on the card's own facts: Indian imports covered the gap last winter, which holds the score at 3. No dated curb order found.

Why Impact 3 Threshold case one curb order. Estimate (no cited figure).

The other facts on file (4)
  • Peak demand 1,026.44 MW on 25 Dec 2024 against about 450 MW firm winter output; about 233 MW new firm power due for 2025-26 [1] (26 Jul 2025)
  • Imports from India 2,118.08 MU (INR 7.09bn) in 2025-26 against 998.85 MU; ended 14 May 2026; demand to exceed supply for much of the next decade; net exporter [2] (23 Jul 2026)
  • In a deficit, power goes to essential services, then households and commerce, and last to industry [3] (not shown)
  • Domestic energy consumption rose to 2,860 GWh by 2022, driven by energy-intensive industry including crypto mining [6] (28 May 2024)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

Bhutan cuts power to energy-heavy industry in the 2026-27 dry season. Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. Bhutan cuts power to energy-heavy industry in the 2026-27 dry seasonImpact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low. · Bhutan
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · BHUTAN · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Mar 2027 Bhutan's government or its power utility orders a cut or a quota on power to energy-intensive industry (ferro-alloys, data centres, crypto mining).

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. IndustryFerro-alloy plants and data centres would cut output in the months of the order (Strature's view).
  3. ExportsLess ferro-alloy output for buyers in India (Strature's view).

Sectors 2

  • Mining and metals
  • Technology

Countries 2

Who is exposed

Countries
Bhutan, India
Sectors
Mining and metals, Technology

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Imports cover it

    India supplies the gap again.

  2. S2

    Short curbs

    A dry January brings rotating curbs on large industry.

  3. S3

    Deep shortfall

    A weak monsoon and costly imports force weeks of cuts.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A 2026-27 import arrangement announced
S2A utility notice to high-voltage customers
S3WMO El Niño updates

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Nov 2026 Dry-season window opens (to March 2027) [2] Tentative · Window
  2. 31 Mar 2027 End of the scored window [2] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · BHUTAN · strature.net

The other side

Bhutan still exports more power than it imports over the year [2], and new plants after 2032 are expected to end the winter gap [2].

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. P II and others 233 MW winter contribution to be wiped out by spike in demand. The Bhutanese · 26 Jul 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  2. Bhutan's winter electricity imports double as demand surges (Kuensel). Asia News Network · 23 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  3. Will India's looming power crisis affect the country's power import during the lean season?. Bhutan Broadcasting Service · News · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  4. El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027. World Meteorological Organization · 3 Sep 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  5. Bhutan's crypto mining bets: decoding economic and foreign policy implications. Observer Research Foundation · 28 May 2024 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks