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World risk · Energy and resources

Oman awards land in its third green hydrogen auction

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, Oman's state auction body announces the award of land in the third round of its green hydrogen auction (the Duqm block) to at least one developer or consortium.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth3
Depth2
Duration5
Hard to substitute2
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

Why it matters

Oman's state hydrogen auction body, Hydrom, opened a third land auction on 30 Apr 2025, one block of up to 300 sq km near Duqm. In September 2025 an award was expected around the end of the second quarter of 2026; no award was found by 3 Nov 2026. This card watches for the award, an opportunity for developers and for Oman's 2030 hydrogen target.

Why Likelihood 4 Drivers: richer terms; almost 100 registrations. Brakes: the award is past both expected dates (late 2025 to early 2026, then mid-2026); no 2026 statement on the round found.

The other facts on file (6)
  • Round planned for early 2025; awards expected Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 [2] (11 Dec 2024)
  • Round opened 30 Apr 2025: block up to 300 sq km in Duqm; proposals in early 2026; eight projects from two earlier rounds; target over 1 Mt a year by 2030 [1] (30 Apr 2025)
  • New Duqm agreements bring awarded projects to nine, needing nearly 35 GW; third round ongoing [3] (18 May 2025)
  • Qualification open to 31 Oct 2025; almost 100 registrations; 90% cut in land lease fees during development [4] (13 Aug 2025)
  • Surplus power sales allowed; 50% cut in fees during development; royalties 3% to 1%; five-year tax holiday for projects starting operations by 2032 [5] (19 Aug 2025)
  • Final bids due by end-January 2026; award anticipated around the end of Q2 2026 [6] (6 Sep 2025)

Where it sits

Strait of HormuzYEMENOMANUAE11. Oman awards land in its third green hydrogen auction: Low impact · possible (Duqm (hydrogen auction block))1 Oman hydrogenthird-round awardOMAN HYDROGEN THIRD-ROUND AWARD0500 kmat 20°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Strait of HormuzYEMENOMANUAE11. Oman awards land in its third green hydrogen auction: Low impact · possible (Duqm (hydrogen auction block))1 Oman hydrogenthird-round awardOMAN HYDROGEN THIRD-ROUND AWARD0500 kmat 20°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, Oman's state auction body announces the award of land in the third round of its green hydrogen auction (the Duqm block) to at least one developer or consortium.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. EnergyAn award would add projects to Oman's export-hydrogen pipeline toward its 2030 target [1].
  3. InvestmentAward winners commit to studies and land fees in Duqm; no investment figure for the round is sourced.
  4. InfrastructureDuqm's port and zone would gain anchor projects [3].

Sectors 2

  • Energy and pipelines
  • Construction

Countries 1

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Oman.

Sectors
Energy and pipelines, Construction

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Award

    Hydrom names winners and signs land agreements.

  2. S2

    Slip

    The award date moves again.

  3. S3

    Shelved

    The round is paused.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A Hydrom signing ceremony for round 3 land
S2A new bid or award date in 2027
S3A Hydrom statement withdrawing the block

No probability is given for the three paths.

The other side

The sweetened terms [5] and almost 100 registrations [4] show interest. But the round is already about a year past its first award date [2] and four months past the later one [6], and no award was found.

Connected in Strature

Sources

6 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Oman announces 3rd green hydrogen auction round. Oman Observer · 30 Apr 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Oman gears up for 3rd green hydrogen auction. Oman Observer · 11 Dec 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Signing of land use agreement for phases two and three of ACME green hydrogen project in Duqm. Public Authority for Special Economic Zones and Free Zones (OPAZ) · 18 May 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Hydrom launches green hydrogen incentives. Oman Observer · 13 Aug 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. Oman allows Round 3 hydrogen investors to sell surplus power. Oman Observer · 19 Aug 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  6. Oman's Hydrom wins Impact Hydrogen Project Award 2025. Oman Observer · 6 Sep 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks