Iranian gas to Iraq stops for a week or more
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, Iranian gas flows to Iraq stop completely for seven days or more in a row, on Iraq's Electricity Ministry's statements.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
Iranian gas fuels about a third of Iraq's power. Flows stopped completely three times in four months: in late November 2025, from 23 Dec 2025 and on 18 Mar 2026. On the ministry's statements the December halt ran until 25 Feb 2026. Supply was about 5m m3 a day in May, a sixth of what Iraq needs, and new strikes on Iran were reported planned for after the US midterms.
Why Likelihood 6 Recurring: one qualifying halt in 36 months, near misses in November 2025 and March 2026. Pushes: last winter's halt; Iran's winter shortfall; reported strike plans. Brakes: Iran's revenue interest; quick restarts. The window holds a full winter: leaning towards it, 6.
The other facts on file (9)
- Ministry: Iranian gas stops completely 27 Nov 2025 (maintenance) [5] (27 Nov 2025)
- Flows resumed 1 Dec 2025 at 5m m3 after what Rudaw called a fortnight-long suspension [6] (1 Dec 2025)
- Ministry 23 Dec 2025: Iran notified complete cessation; 4,000-4,500 MW lost [7] (23 Dec 2025)
- Ministry 25 Feb 2026: supplies resumed after the December halt (Reuters) [8] (25 Feb 2026)
- Iranian gas to Iraq completely halted 18 Mar 2026; about 3,100 MW offline [1] (18 Mar 2026)
- Flows resumed about 5m m3/d by 21 Mar; grid about 14,000 MW [2] (21 Mar 2026)
- Iran supplies a third to 40% of Iraq's gas and power needs; peak about 30m m3/d [3] (7 May 2026)
- Summer demand about 40 GW vs about 29 GW output; US waiver expired 8 Mar 2025 [3] (7 May 2026)
- Blackouts of up to 12 hours in 2025 led to protests [3] (7 May 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, Iranian gas flows to Iraq stop completely for seven days or more in a row, on Iraq's Electricity Ministry's statements.
Not under wayThree scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Steady trickle
Flows stay low but do not stop.
- S2
Cut-off
New strikes on Iran's gas system stop exports for a week or more.
- S3
Winter squeeze
Iran keeps gas at home in the cold months, as it did in December-February.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | ministry statements of continued supply |
| S2 | an attack on South Pars after November 2026 |
| S3 | the ministry reporting flows below 5m m3 a day |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Jun 2027 Start of Iraq's peak power season [3] Tentative · Outside event
Connected in Strature
- Iraq
- Iran
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Shares a channel: The same war decides Iran's gas output and Iraq's oil income.
- Iraq has no 2027 budget law by the end of March 2027 Shares a channel: Fuel for power plants is a budget cost.
Sources
8 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Iraq faces power shortage as Iran halts gas supply after South Pars attack. The National · 18 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Iraq holds power at 14,000 MW as Iran gas resumes. Shafaq News · 21 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Iraq power 2026: war on Iran collapses the grid's last defenses ahead of peak summer. Shafaq News · 7 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Are fresh US-Israeli strikes on Iran in the pipeline?. France 24 · 22 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Iran stops gas exports to Iraq despite attack on Kurdistan's key field. Rudaw · 27 Nov 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Iran resumes gas exports to Iraq. Rudaw · 1 Dec 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Iran halts gas supplies to Iraq, triggering power shortfall. Pipeline and Gas Journal · 23 Dec 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Iranian gas supplies resume to Iraq, ministry says (Reuters). Cyprus Mail · 26 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks