No new IMF staff-level agreement for Lebanon by Nov 2027
The test By 3 Nov 2027, the IMF has not announced a new staff-level agreement with Lebanon (judged at that date).
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Lebanon's previous staff-level agreement was signed in April 2022; implementation has been slow [1]
- Finance Minister Yassine Jaber met the IMF managing director to seek a new agreement (reported 28 Sep 2026) [1]
- The IMF called amendments to the bank resolution law a significant step forward (September 2026) [1]
- The government's 2022 estimate of crisis losses is about US$70bn [1]
Why it matters
Lebanon signed a staff-level agreement with the IMF in April 2022, but implementation has been slow and no programme followed. The finance minister sought a new agreement in late September 2026, and the IMF praised changes to the bank resolution law. Without a deal, deposit recovery, debt talks and much reconstruction money are likely to stay frozen (Strature's view).
Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: four and a half years without a deal; war damage; the vote postponed to 2028 removes a deadline. Brakes: the bank-law step; US pressure for reform.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case: no agreement by 3 Nov 2027.
The other facts on file (1)
- Parliament extended its term by two years on 9 Mar 2026 (76 for, 41 against, 4 abstentions); elections had been due in May 2026 [2] (9 Mar 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
By 3 Nov 2027, the IMF has not announced a new staff-level agreement with Lebanon (judged at that date).
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- DepositsA plan to repay frozen deposits lacks an IMF anchor (Strature's view).
- Debt and reconstructionEurobond talks and donor money wait on a programme (Strature's view).
Sectors 1
- Banks and insurers
Countries 1
- Lebanon primary
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
A deal
Bank-law changes bring a staff-level agreement in 2027.
- S2
Slow progress
Laws pass one by one but no agreement comes in time.
- S3
Frozen
Renewed war or a political crisis halts talks.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | An IMF staff mission statement on Lebanon |
| S2 | A deposit-recovery law stalled in parliament |
| S3 | Wider Israeli strikes beyond the south |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
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Connected in Strature
- Lebanon
- No UN or multinational force replaces UNIFIL in south Lebanon by 31 Mar 2027 Shares a channel: Security in the south decides much of the reconstruction money a deal would unlock.
Sources
2 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Lebanon calls for 'reciprocal' progress on Israel deal as disarming Hezbollah remains stalled. The National · 28 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Lebanon postpones parliamentary elections by two years. The New Arab · 9 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks