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World risk · Geopolitics and conflict

No UN or multinational force replaces UNIFIL in south Lebanon by 31 Mar 2027

The test By 31 Mar 2027, no UN-mandated or multinational force with a security role has been agreed to take over from UNIFIL in southern Lebanon (judged at that date).

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration6
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Resolution 2790 (2025) extended UNIFIL until 31 December 2026, with withdrawal through 2027 [1]
  2. Lebanon told of a possible Security Council meeting in mid-November on UN forces in the south; Naharnet described a negative atmosphere [3]
  3. UN peacekeeping chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix: no decision so far on a UN presence after UNIFIL; options under consideration; Lebanon's extension request has failed so far [2]
  4. The EU plans a training mission for Lebanese forces, not a border patrol or monitoring mission [2]
  5. The June 2026 US-brokered plan is stalled on sequencing [4]
  6. UNIFIL had 7,565 peacekeepers from 46 countries on 23 Sep 2026, including 732 from Italy, 711 from France and 272 from Ireland [5]

Why it matters

The UN Security Council gave UNIFIL a final mandate to 31 Dec 2026, with withdrawal during 2027. On 14 Oct 2026 the UN peacekeeping chief said no decision had been made on any UN presence after it; Lebanon's push for an extension has not succeeded so far. Without a successor, the south loses its international monitor.

Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: the final-mandate wording; the reported mood at the Council. Brakes: options under consideration; Lebanon's request; Council talks due.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case: no force agreed by 31 Mar 2027.

Where it sits

SYRIAJORDANISRAELCYPRUSLEBANON11. No UN or multinational force replaces UNIFIL in south Lebanon by 31 Mar 2027: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 No force replaces UNIFILElevated impact · possibleNO FORCE REPLACES UNIFIL0200 kmat 34°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
SYRIAJORDANISRAELCYPRUSLEBANON11. No UN or multinational force replaces UNIFIL in south Lebanon by 31 Mar 2027: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 No force replacesUNIFILNO FORCE REPLACES UNIFIL0200 kmat 34°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

By 31 Mar 2027, no UN-mandated or multinational force with a security role has been agreed to take over from UNIFIL in southern Lebanon (judged at that date).

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Border securityThe south loses its international monitor while Israeli strikes continue [2][4].
  3. Troop contributorsItaly, France, Ireland and others bring troops home [1][5].
  4. Lebanon's armyThe army must hold the south with training support only [2].

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Lebanon, Israel, Ireland, Italy, France.

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    A UN follow-on

    The Council agrees a smaller mission.

  2. S2

    A bilateral track

    The US-brokered plan takes over monitoring.

  3. S3

    A gap

    UNIFIL draws down with nothing in its place.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A Council resolution by 31 Dec 2026
S2A monitoring mechanism named under it
S3No Council text by 31 Dec 2026

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Nov 2026 Possible Security Council meeting on UN forces in south Lebanon [3] Tentative · Outside event
  2. 31 Dec 2026 UNIFIL's final mandate ends; withdrawal through 2027 [1] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 31 Mar 2027 Date at which the event is judged [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · LEBANON · strature.net

The other side

A smaller mission, or monitoring inside the US-brokered plan, could cost less and give Lebanon's army more room (Strature's view). The EU's training mission strengthens the army that must take over [2].

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. UNIFIL Mandate. United Nations, UNIFIL · 2025 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. UN peacekeeping chief says major questions hang over southern Lebanon as UNIFIL exit nears. La Nación (AP) · 14 Oct 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Report: Israel vote result won't alter Israel security policy in Lebanon. Naharnet · 26 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Lebanon calls for 'reciprocal' progress on Israel deal as disarming Hezbollah remains stalled. The National · 28 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. UNIFIL troop-contributing countries. United Nations, UNIFIL · 23 Sep 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks