Ecuador's IMF programme completes no review by 31 Mar 2027
The test No IMF Executive Board review of Ecuador's 48-month Extended Fund Facility arrangement (the sixth) is completed between 3 Nov 2026 and 31 Mar 2027.
Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
Ecuador's IMF reviews pace its disbursements: the fifth was completed on 22 Apr 2026, bringing disbursements to about US$3.7bn of a US$5bn arrangement. That review came after fiscal underperformance in late 2025. The question is whether the sixth slips past March 2027.
Why Likelihood 3 Driver: fiscal underperformance in late 2025. Brakes: the fifth review reached the Board 22 days after staff agreement; all end-October 2025 criteria met; market access regained in January 2026. One driver against a strong blocker.
The other facts on file (4)
- Staff agreement on the fourth review on 2 Dec 2025 (about US$620m); all end-October 2025 performance criteria met [3] (2 Dec 2025)
- Staff agreement on the fifth review on 31 Mar 2026 (about US$394m) after fiscal underperformance in late 2025 [1] (31 Mar 2026)
- January 2026 return to international markets, first since 2019: a US$4bn bond issue including a US$3bn buy-back [1] (31 Mar 2026)
- Board completed the fifth review on 22 Apr 2026; disbursements about US$3.7bn of about US$5bn; approved May 2024, augmented July 2025; high oil prices expected to support the balances [2] (22 Apr 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
No IMF Executive Board review of Ecuador's 48-month Extended Fund Facility arrangement (the sixth) is completed between 3 Nov 2026 and 31 Mar 2027.
Not under waySectors 2
- Banks and insurers
- Government bonds
Countries 1
- Ecuador primary
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
On track
Staff agreement late in 2026 and Board completion within weeks.
- S2
Late but inside
Agreement in early 2027 and Board completion by March.
- S3
Slip
Fiscal targets are missed again and the review moves past March.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | An IMF staff-level press release on the sixth review |
| S2 | A staff-level release by February 2027 |
| S3 | No staff release by mid-March 2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
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Connected in Strature
- Ecuador
- Erosion or a rupture stops Ecuador's main crude pipeline for a week or more Shares a channel: The IMF expects high oil prices to support Ecuador's balances, and a pipeline stop cuts oil exports.
- Ecuador orders scheduled national power cuts Shares a channel: The IMF lists more electricity supply under energy resilience.
Sources
3 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Ecuador: IMF Reaches Agreement on the Fifth Review under Ecuador's EFF Arrangement. International Monetary Fund · 31 Mar 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Ecuador: The IMF Executive Board Concludes the Fifth Review of the EFF Arrangement. International Monetary Fund · 22 Apr 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Ecuador: IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement on the Fourth Review under the EFF Arrangement. International Monetary Fund · 2 Dec 2025 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks