Flows on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline stop for a week
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, oil flows through the BTC pipeline stop for 7 days in a row or more, for any reason other than planned maintenance, as the operator, a government or two sources report.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- CPC loadings suspended after a drone incident on 8 Sep; resumed by 10 Sep [5]
Why it matters
The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline carries about three quarters of the oil moved through Azerbaijan's main pipelines, including Kazakh and Turkmen crude, across Georgia to Türkiye's Mediterranean coast. It is the main bypass of routes through Russia. No halt was found in recent years, and the drivers for one are weak.
Why Likelihood 2 Pushes: Iranian spillover onto Azerbaijan (5 Mar); Aliyev's charge against Russia (14 Feb); both weak for this pipeline. Brakes: no attack on BTC found; the route runs through Georgia and Türkiye, away from both wars. A tail case.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case a 7-day stop.
The other facts on file (4)
- BTC carried 27.18 Mt in 2025, 74.9% of 36.31 Mt via Azerbaijan's main pipelines, down 7.77%; 15.2% transit oil from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan [1] (31 Dec 2025)
- BTC carried 10.6 Mt in Jan-May 2026, down 8.6%, 76.8% of 13.8 Mt; Kazakh and Turkmen transit 1.856 Mt against 1.934 Mt [2] (31 May 2026)
- Drones hit Nakhchivan airport and fell near a school; Azerbaijan blamed Iran, which denied it [3] (5 Mar 2026)
- Aliyev accused Russia of hitting Azerbaijani energy infrastructure in Ukraine [4] (14 Feb 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Flows on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline stop for a weekImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 2 of 10, Low. · Azerbaijan
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, oil flows through the BTC pipeline stop for 7 days in a row or more, for any reason other than planned maintenance, as the operator, a government or two sources report.
Not under wayGoods 1
Sectors 2
- Energy and pipelines
- Ports and logistics
Countries 5
- Azerbaijan primary
- Georgia
- Turkey
- Kazakhstan
- Turkmenistan
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines, Ports and logistics
- Goods
- Crude oil
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Steady flow
No halt; volumes drift with Azerbaijani output.
- S2
More transit
Kazakhstan sends more crude via BTC to avoid Russian routes.
- S3
Security stop
Sabotage or a strike halts flows for a week.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Monthly statistics committee figures |
| S2 | A rise in Kazakh transit in the statistics |
| S3 | An operator outage notice |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Jan 2027 Statistics committee's full-year 2026 pipeline figures (as on 19 Jan 2026) [1] Tentative · Outside event
Connected in Strature
- Crude oil
- Turkey
- Kazakhstan
- Attacks halt Kazakhstan's main Black Sea oil terminal for a week or more Shares a channel: BTC is the CPC's bypass for Kazakh crude.
- An Iranian drone or missile hits Azerbaijan again Shares a channel: Iranian spillover onto Azerbaijan is one driver.
- Drone strikes on merchant ships off Bulgaria and Romania Shares a channel: Another Caspian-Black Sea energy route under attack.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- BTC pipeline transports over 36 million tons of oil in 2025. AZERTAC (State Statistical Committee) · 19 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Azerbaijan oil exports via BTC pipeline drop 8.6% in five months. Hellenic Shipping News (Investing.com) · 19 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Iran denies its drones hit airport in Azerbaijan's exclave as war widens. Al Jazeera · 5 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- 2026 in Azerbaijan. Wikipedia · 1 Nov 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- CPC oil loading operations resume after drone incident. The Astana Times · 10 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks