One attack in northern Togo kills ten or more people
The test One attack in northern Togo, reported by the government or two sources, kills at least ten soldiers or civilians, by 1 Nov 2027.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
Jihadist attacks reached Togo's northern Savanes region in 2021 and have kept it under a security state of emergency since June 2022. Attacks spilling over from Burkina Faso have killed soldiers and villagers, at least 12 soldiers in one raid in July 2024, and next door JNIM killed 15 Beninese soldiers in March 2026. This card asks whether one attack in Togo kills ten or more.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: a continuing campaign that keeps the Savanes emergency in force; JNIM's push into the Benin-Niger-Nigeria border area. Brakes: border posts, trench and the June 2025 operation.
Why Impact 2 Threshold case one attack with ten deaths.
The other facts on file (4)
- Security state of emergency in Savanes from 13 Jun 2022 after a May 2022 attack that killed eight soldiers, claimed by JNIM [1] (16 Jun 2022)
- About 20 civilians killed in attacks on five Kpendjal villages on 15-16 Jul 2022; 21 attacks and 31 dead by late Nov 2023 (government); 66 killed in H1 2023 (ACLED); emergency reaffirmed Feb 2025; army operation 8 Jun 2025 [2] (2 Sep 2025)
- At least 12 soldiers killed at the Kpinkankandi forward post on 20 Jul 2024, per local media; no official toll [6] (21 Jul 2024)
- JNIM killed 15 Beninese soldiers near the Niger border on 4 Mar 2026; ACLED names the Benin-Niger-Nigeria border area a new hotspot [3] (6 Mar 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- One attack in northern Togo kills ten or more peopleImpact 2 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Togo
How it spreads
One attack in northern Togo, reported by the government or two sources, kills at least ten soldiers or civilians, by 1 Nov 2027.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- SecurityA mass-casualty attack would test the emergency regime and the border defences [2].
- Local economyMarkets and hotels in Dapaong and Koundjoare have already lost trade to insecurity [2]; a larger attack deepens that (Strature's view).
- PeopleAbout 9,000 internally displaced and about 37,000 refugees from Burkina Faso were recorded in March 2024 [2].
Sectors 2
- Agriculture and food
- Ports and logistics
Countries 3
- Togo primary
- Burkina Faso
- Benin
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Togo, Burkina Faso, Benin
- Sectors
- Agriculture and food, Ports and logistics
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Contained
Small attacks and mines, none of ten deaths.
- S2
Mass attack
One raid on a post or villages kills ten or more.
- S3
Southward push
Attacks move beyond Savanes.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | No government toll of ten or more through mid-2027 |
| S2 | A government statement with a toll |
| S3 | An incident in the Kara region |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
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The other side
No attack of ten or more dead in Togo was found after July 2024, and the June 2025 army operation killed several dozen fighters [2] (Strature's reading of the sources opened).
Connected in Strature
- One attack in northern Benin kills 20 or more soldiers Shares a channel: The same JNIM front across the Burkina Faso, Benin and Togo borders (Africanews, 6 Mar 2026).
Sources
4 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Togo declares state of emergency in north after jihadist attack. MyJoyOnline (AFP) · 16 Jun 2022 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- No Peace, No Bread: Northern Togo in the Grip of a Three-year State of Emergency. Afrique XXI · 31 Jul 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- 15 soldiers killed in jihadist attack in northern Benin. Africanews · 6 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Terrorisme au Togo : 12 soldats tues dans une attaque a Kpinkankandi. Benin Web TV · 21 Jul 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review; scores unchanged · All risks