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World risk · Geopolitics and conflict · Elections & unrest

Will Swiss voters approve the looser War Material Act on 29 Nov 2026?

The test On 29 Nov 2026 Swiss voters accept the amendment of 19 Dec 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material in the referendum vote, as published by the Federal Chancellery.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

Polls are not results.

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
7High steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration9
Hard to substitute2
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. The referendum qualified with 58,767 signatures; EDU, FDP, GLP, Mitte and SVP back the law; EVP, Greens, PdA and SP oppose it. [5]
  2. Since 28 Feb 2026 no new application for a definitive export of war material to the US has been approved. [3]
  3. SRG/gfs.bern, 5-18 Oct 2026, n=14,874, +-2.8: 49% yes, 41% no, 10% undecided; German-speaking 53% yes; Romandy 47% no, 37% yes.
  4. YouGov, 7-19 Oct 2026, n=2,949, +-1.8: 38% yes, 33% no, nearly three in ten undecided.
  5. The vote is on 29 Nov 2026. [1]
  6. The amendment lets exports go to the 36 Annex 2 partner states even in armed conflict, gives the Federal Council an exception power in extraordinary circumstances, and requires non-re-export declarations only when policy needs it. [2]
  7. The Neutrality Initiative was rejected on 27 Sep 2026: 29.85% yes, turnout 47.06%, no canton in favour. [6]

Why it matters

Parliament loosened Switzerland's War Material Act on 19 Dec 2025, and a referendum puts it to voters on 29 Nov 2026. The first SRG poll (gfs.bern, 5-18 Oct 2026, 14,874 voters, +-2.8 points) shows 49% yes and 41% no; the Federal Council campaigns for yes. Polls are not results; Strature makes no call on the vote. If it passes, 36 partner states may buy Swiss arms even while at war, and buyers need a non-re-export declaration only when foreign, neutrality or security policy requires it; re-exports to Ukraine stay barred.

Why Likelihood 7 Rates the chance of an outcome from published polls and positions; not a prediction or call of the result; polls are not results. Pushes: five parties for yes, older voters lean yes, neutrality initiative rejected on 27 Sep. Brakes: Romandy leans no, SP and Green voters against.

Why Impact 4 Key measure Swiss war material exports, CHF 948.2m in 2025. One economy and one region, 86% of exports to Europe; total about US$1.15bn at ECB rates of 23 Oct 2026, part affected under US$1bn; a lasting change of rules; buyers have many other suppliers. Canada is an Annex 2 partner and would gain, not lose.

The other facts on file (4)
  • Parliament passed the amendment on 19 Dec 2025: National Council 122 to 68, Council of States 31 to 11. [5] (19 Dec 2025)
  • A proposal to allow re-exports to Ukraine under the right of self-defence found no majority. [9] (7 Jan 2026)
  • SECO cannot agree to requests to pass Swiss war material to Ukraine while it is in an international armed conflict. [4] (10 Mar 2026)
  • 2025 war material exports CHF 948.2m to 64 countries (2024: CHF 664.7m); Europe 86.14%; Germany CHF 386.4m, US CHF 94.2m, Hungary CHF 63.4m, Italy CHF 62.2m, Luxembourg CHF 47.4m; Canada listed in Annex 2. [4] (10 Mar 2026)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Will Swiss voters approve the looser War Material Act on 29 Nov 2026?: Elevated impact · likely1 · Elevated impact · likelyBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitARGENTINABRAZILFRANCESPAINGERMANYITALYPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Will Swiss voters approve the looser War Material Act on 29 Nov 2026?: Elevated impact · likelyBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalTaiwan StraitARGENTINABRAZILFRANCEITALYINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

On 29 Nov 2026 Swiss voters accept the amendment of 19 Dec 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material in the referendum vote, as published by the Federal Chancellery.

Not under way

Channels 5 on the card

  1. CanadaCanada is an Annex 2 partner [4] and would gain freer access; no Canadian loss found.
  2. European procurementPartner states at war could still buy Swiss ammunition and parts [2]; over 80% of war material exports go to Europe (86.14% in 2025) [4].
  3. Re-export controlA non-re-export declaration only when foreign, neutrality or security policy requires it; the committee warns Swiss arms could reach rogue states or terrorist groups.
  4. Neutrality policyA wider Federal Council exception power, still bound by neutrality law; the Ukraine block is unchanged.
  5. Swiss industryThe Federal Council says the change keeps the industry in international supply chains.

Sectors 1

  • Technology

Countries 1

Who is exposed

Countries
Switzerland, Germany, United States, Hungary, Italy, Luxembourg, Ukraine, Canada
Sectors
Technology

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Yes

    The amendment passes and the new rules apply to partner-state orders.

  2. S2

    No

    Voters reject it and the stricter rules stay.

  3. S3

    Yes, then Ukraine

    The law passes and a new motion seeks a Ukraine exception.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Official result on 29 Nov 2026
S2Yes share below 50% on 29 Nov 2026
S3Such a motion filed by the end of the summer session 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 29 Nov 2026 Referendum vote on the War Material Act amendment [1] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 29 Nov 2026 Same-day votes on VAT for the AHV, the Fireworks Initiative and the Fairness Initiative Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · SWITZERLAND · strature.net

The other side

A yes keeps Swiss suppliers in European rearmament chains; the Federal Council links a competitive industry to credible armed neutrality. A no would be read by its backers as a vote for control over where Swiss weapons go.

Connected in Strature

Sources

7 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Änderung des Kriegsmaterialgesetzes (vote dossier). Swiss Federal Council (admin.ch) · 12 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. Bundesrat empfiehlt ein Ja zu den Änderungen des Kriegsmaterialgesetzes. Swiss Federal Council · 29 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Abstimmung über die Änderung des Kriegsmaterialgesetzes. SECO · undated · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Kriegsmaterialexporte 2025. SECO · 10 Mar 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Vote 693: Änderung des Kriegsmaterialgesetzes. Swissvotes (Année politique suisse, University of Bern) · 25 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. Vote 688: Volksinitiative Wahrung der schweizerischen Neutralität. Swissvotes · 25 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. Referendum lanciert: Allianz will Lockerung für Kriegsmaterialexporte verhindern. SRF · 7 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks