A missile or drone hits Cyprus or the UK bases again
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, a missile or drone launched by Iran or an armed ally lands on Cypriot territory or the UK Sovereign Base Areas (not an interception), as either government or two independent sources report.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
In the first days of the war, Iran fired two ballistic missiles toward Cyprus, both intercepted, and a one-way attack drone hit RAF Akrotiri on the night of 1 Mar 2026. Greece and other European navies then sent ships to protect the island. No hit on Cyprus has been reported since March, though Iran kept firing at other US partners in the region.
Why Likelihood 3 Brakes: no hit since March despite later Iranian fire at Jordan; the European naval umbrella; the drone's origin unconfirmed; the US President's 8 Oct pledge to the midterms. 3.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case: one hit.
The other facts on file (4)
- Iran fired two ballistic missiles toward Cyprus near the UK bases; both intercepted [1] (1 Mar 2026)
- A one-way attack drone hit RAF Akrotiri on the night of 1 Mar; Healey: no casualties, damage minimal; origin under investigation [2] (2 Mar 2026)
- Paphos airport evacuated over a drone threat; Greece sent two frigates and F-16s [1] (2 Mar 2026)
- HMS Dragon approved; Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, France and Greece joined in protecting the island [1] (5 Mar 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- A missile or drone hits Cyprus or the UK bases againImpact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low. · Cyprus
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, a missile or drone launched by Iran or an armed ally lands on Cypriot territory or the UK Sovereign Base Areas (not an interception), as either government or two independent sources report.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Tourism and air travelAirport closures and cancellations, as on 2 Mar [1] (Strature's view).
- SecurityEuropean naval deployments around the island harden (Strature's view).
Sectors 2
- Ports and logistics
- Banks and insurers
Countries 4
- Cyprus primary
- United Kingdom
- Greece
- Iran
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Cyprus, United Kingdom, Greece
- Sectors
- Ports and logistics, Banks and insurers
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Quiet island
No renewed strike on Iran; Cyprus is spared.
- S2
Intercepted fire
Iran or an ally fires at the bases again; all intercepted.
- S3
A hit
A drone or missile lands on the bases or a town.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | F-0074 resolves no on 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) |
| S2 | A UK Ministry of Defence statement on an interception |
| S3 | A US or Israeli strike on Iran launched with use of UK bases |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
Where the card uses it F-0074 resolves no on 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 20 Nov 2026 F-0074 resolves (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran). Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [3] Declared · Strature date
- 31 Oct 2027 End of the scored window [3] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
The European naval umbrella built in March gives the island stronger air defence than it had when the war began [1].
Connected in Strature
- Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and a renewed strike
- Cyprus
- United Kingdom
- Greece
- Iran
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Driven by: A renewed strike on Iran is that card's trigger and brings Iranian fire on Western bases.
- Iranian fire damages a site in Jordan again Shares a channel: Iranian fire on another host of Western forces.
- A Greek-Turkish standoff at sea south or east of Crete Shares a channel: The same sea and the same European naval posture.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- 2026 in Cyprus. Wikipedia · 1 Nov 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Defence Secretary John Healey confirms drone strike on RAF Akrotiri. Politis (English) · 2 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Forecast register. Strature · 21 Aug 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Iran Damages A-10, F-15s With Missile Attack on Air Base in Jordan. Air & Space Forces Magazine · 9 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Trump rules out new Iran attack before US midterm elections. France 24 (AFP) · 9 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks