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World risk · Regulation and compliance

The EU has not lifted Vietnam's seafood "yellow card" by 30 Jun 2027

The test On 30 Jun 2027 the European Commission's IUU fishing "yellow card" on Vietnam is still in force, with no Commission decision lifting it.

Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
6Elevated steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth3
Depth1
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

Why it matters

The European Commission warned Vietnam over illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing with a "yellow card" on 23 Oct 2017. The card is still in force after five inspections. Hanoi aims to have it lifted in 2026. This card asks whether it is still in force on 30 Jun 2027.

Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: nine years and five inspections without a lift; shortcomings found at the March 2026 inspection, as reported; no Commission decision date found. Brakes: Hanoi's August 2026 action plan and its 2026 target.

Why Impact 3 Threshold case the present checks continue.

The other facts on file (6)
  • The Commission issued the IUU yellow card to Vietnam, a warning with no trade measures yet [1] (23 Oct 2017)
  • The Commission's fifth inspection was due in early March 2026, after nearly eight years and four previous inspections [2] (25 Feb 2026)
  • The March 2026 inspection saw progress but found shortcomings: incomplete vessel marking, weak port controls, slow case handling (as reported) [5] (17 Apr 2026)
  • Decision No. 1516/QD-TTg approved an action plan answering the fifth inspection's recommendations, aiming to have the card lifted in 2026 [3] (10 Aug 2026)
  • The plan sets full coverage of vessel data, port checks and electronic catch documentation [6] (11 Aug 2026)
  • A red card would cost about US$387m a year of wild-caught and US$93m of farmed seafood exports (VASEP-World Bank estimate) [4] (13 Sep 2021)

Where it sits

BURMATHAILANDLAOSCAMBODIA11. The EU has not lifted Vietnam's seafood "yellow card" by 30 Jun 2027: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 The EU has not liftedVietnam's seafood "yellowcard" by 30 Jun 2027Low impact · possibleEU SEAFOOD YELLOW CARD STAYS0500 kmat 16°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
THAILANDLAOSCAMBODIA11. The EU has not lifted Vietnam's seafood "yellow card" by 30 Jun 2027: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 EU seafoodyellow card staysEU SEAFOOD YELLOW CARD STAYS0500 kmat 16°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

On 30 Jun 2027 the European Commission's IUU fishing "yellow card" on Vietnam is still in force, with no Commission decision lifting it.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Seafood exportsVietnamese wild-caught seafood bound for the EU keeps its extra checks.
  3. The tailThe card keeps open a red card, an EU import ban; the worse case, not scored.
  4. Fishing fleetsHanoi's plan keeps pressure on vessel tracking and catch records.

Goods 1

  • Seafood

Sectors 1

  • Agriculture and food

Countries 1

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Vietnam, European Union.

Sectors
Agriculture and food
Goods
Seafood

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Card stays

    No lifting decision by 30 Jun 2027.

  2. S2

    Card lifted

    A sixth inspection leads to a lift.

  3. S3

    Red card

    The Commission judges progress insufficient.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1No Commission visit announced by spring 2027
S2A Commission announcement of a further visit
S3A Commission statement of non-cooperation

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Dec 2026 End of Hanoi's target year for lifting the card [3] Tentative · Outside event
  2. 30 Jun 2027 Test date: is the yellow card still in force [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · VIETNAM · strature.net

The other side

A lifting decision would open the EU market fully to Vietnamese wild-caught seafood (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

6 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Commission warns Vietnam over insufficient action to fight illegal fishing. EU IUU Fishing Coalition · 23 Oct 2017 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Việt Nam intensifies efforts to have EC's "yellow card" on seafood exports lifted. Viet Nam News · 25 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Vietnam targets removal of EU yellow card on IUU fishing in 2026. VnEconomy · 13 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. The Prime Minister of Vietnam issues a deadline to remove IUU's yellow card. VASEP · 13 Sep 2021 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. Việt Nam tightens IUU fishing enforcement, targets yellow card removal. Viet Nam News · 17 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  6. Vietnam determined to have IUU "yellow card" lifted in 2026. VOV · 11 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks