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World risk · Geopolitics and conflict

Famine is confirmed in part of Yemen

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the IPC's Famine Review Committee confirms famine (Phase 5) in any area of Yemen, or an IPC analysis puts 100,000 or more people in Phase 5.

Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth3
Duration5
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. About 5.4 million people in government areas projected in IPC Phase 3 or worse in Oct-Dec 2026, about 1.8 million in Phase 4 [1]
  2. Fuel imports fell about 85% year on year in August 2026; no recorded diesel or petrol arrivals through northern ports [1]
  3. 2026 cereal import need is 5.2 million tonnes, close to the five-year average; wheat imports nearly doubled year on year in July 2026 [1]

Why it matters

About 5.4 million people in Yemen's government areas are projected to face crisis-level hunger or worse to December 2026, and the UN food agency has been shutting its operations in the Houthi-held north. No petrol or diesel arrivals were recorded at northern ports in August. An IPC famine finding needs data that the war makes hard to collect.

Why Likelihood 3 Drivers: the aid exit in the north; the war on the coast; fuel imports cut. Brakes: cereal imports near average; no IPC data for the north, a blocker in force.

Why Impact 5 Threshold case: 100,000 people in Phase 5.

The other facts on file (1)
  • Unnamed UN officials told AP that WFP was shutting its operations in Houthi-held northern Yemen, home to about 70% of the country's needs [2] (29 Jan 2026)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebYEMENDJIBOUTIBab el-Mandeb11. Famine is confirmed in part of Yemen: Elevated impact · unlikely (placed at the country)1 Famine is confirmedin part of YemenElevated impact · unlikelyFAMINE DECLARED IN YEMEN0300 kmat 16°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebYEMENBab el-Mandeb11. Famine is confirmed in part of Yemen: Elevated impact · unlikely (placed at the country)1 Famine declaredin YemenFAMINE DECLARED IN YEMEN0300 kmat 16°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the IPC's Famine Review Committee confirms famine (Phase 5) in any area of Yemen, or an IPC analysis puts 100,000 or more people in Phase 5.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. LivesA famine finding means deaths from hunger in at least one area (IPC definition; Strature's view).
  3. AidA finding usually brings emergency funding and pressure for access to the north (Strature's view).

Sectors 1

  • Agriculture and food

Countries 3

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Somalia.

Sectors
Agriculture and food

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Held off

    Imports and aid keep areas out of Phase 5.

  2. S2

    Hidden crisis

    Conditions worsen in the north but no IPC analysis is possible.

  3. S3

    Famine finding

    An IPC analysis finds Phase 5 in a district.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1The next FAO GIEWS brief on Yemen
S2No IPC update for the north in 2027
S3A Famine Review Committee convened on Yemen

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Dec 2026 End of the IPC projection period for government areas [1] Declared · Outside event
  2. 3 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · YEMEN · strature.net

The other side

The 2026 cereal import need, 5.2 million tonnes, is close to the five-year average, and wheat imports nearly doubled year on year in July 2026 [1]. Access limits make a formal finding less likely even where conditions are grave.

Connected in Strature

Sources

2 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. GIEWS Country Brief: Yemen. FAO · 13 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. UN food agency is shutting down operations in rebel-held northern Yemen, officials say. The New Arab (AP) · 29 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks