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World risk · Regulation and compliance

Slovenian voters strike down the government's omnibus development law on 6 Dec 2026

The test In the legislative referendum of 6 Dec 2026, the Act on Intervention Measures for the Development of Slovenia is rejected: a majority of those voting vote against and the votes against reach one fifth of all eligible voters, as declared by Slovenia's State Election Commission.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
6Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. The referendum on the Act on Intervention Measures for the Development of Slovenia is set for Sunday 6 Dec 2026; 1,698,752 voters are eligible [1]
  2. The law amends about ten acts (VAT cuts on basic food and energy, business tax cuts, a cap on pension contributions for high earners, lower rental taxes, an end to holiday-rental limits); the Fiscal Council estimated a possible cost of EUR 1.2bn to public finances in 2027; unions gathered 40,000 signatures in just over three weeks [2]
  3. On 11 Oct 2026 the inquiry-commissions law was rejected 51.26% to 48.74%, with more than 471,000 votes against, above the 339,706 needed to block it [3]
  4. Mediana for POP TV: 50.2% oppose the government's work, 36.4% support it; SDS 23.7%, Freedom Movement 20.3% [5]

Why it matters

Slovenians vote on 6 Dec 2026 on the Act on Intervention Measures for the Development of Slovenia, an omnibus law of tax and pension changes that the unions forced to a referendum. On 11 Oct 2026 voters struck down another of the governing majority's laws. The only poll on the law, from May, found more opponents than supporters.

Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: the only poll on the law has more opponents than supporters; the 11 Oct defeat, with votes against well above the quorum; majority disapproval of the government. Brakes: popular VAT cuts on food and energy; the one-fifth quorum; SDS leads party polls; the poll is six months old and a fifth were undecided.

The other facts on file (2)
  • The Constitutional Court annulled parliament's decision that the referendum was inadmissible, 7 votes to 1 [4] (3 Aug 2026)
  • Valicon for Siol (8-12 May 2026, 1,527 respondents): 43.4% opposed the intervention law, 34.3% supported it, 22.2% did not know; no margin of error stated [6] (14 May 2026)

Where it sits

ITALYCROATIAAUSTRIAHUNGARYSLOVAKIA11. Slovenian voters strike down the government's omnibus development law on 6 Dec 2026: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Slovenians rejectomnibus lawElevated impact · possibleSLOVENIANS REJECT OMNIBUS LAW0200 kmat 46°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
ITALYCROATIAAUSTRIAHUNGARY11. Slovenian voters strike down the government's omnibus development law on 6 Dec 2026: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Slovenians rejectomnibus lawSLOVENIANS REJECT OMNIBUS LAW0200 kmat 46°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

In the legislative referendum of 6 Dec 2026, the Act on Intervention Measures for the Development of Slovenia is rejected: a majority of those voting vote against and the votes against reach one fifth of all eligible voters, as declared by Slovenia's State Election Commission.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. TaxThe VAT, business-tax and rental-tax cuts would fall before they take effect in 2027 [2].
  3. Public financesThe EUR 1.2bn cost the Fiscal Council estimated for 2027 would not arise [2].
  4. PoliticsA second referendum defeat in two months for the governing majority [3].

Countries 1

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Slovenia.

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Law upheld

    The quorum or the majority fails; the cuts take effect.

  2. S2

    Law struck down

    Voters reject it; the government cannot pass the same law for a year.

  3. S3

    Re-legislated in parts

    After a defeat, the coalition brings back single measures, such as the VAT cut.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A new poll on the law showing a yes lead before 6 Dec 2026
S2The State Election Commission's result on 6 Dec 2026
S3A new bill on food or energy VAT in 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 6 Dec 2026 Legislative referendum on the omnibus development law [1] Declared · Outside event

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SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · SLOVENIA · strature.net

The other side

The law cuts VAT on food and energy, which voters may want to keep, and SDS still leads party polls [2][5]. SDS's Rado Gladek said voters would choose a vision of enterprise, growth and jobs (19 Oct 2026) [2].

Connected in Strature

Sources

6 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Število volilnih upravičencev za referendum o Zakonu o interventnih ukrepih za razvoj Slovenije. Government of Slovenia · 30 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  2. Slovenia di nuovo alle urne: un altro referendum sfida il governo Janša. il Nord Est · 19 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  3. Referendum in Slovenia, i cittadini bocciano la legge sulle commissioni d'inchiesta. il Nord Est · 12 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  4. Ustavno sodišče dopustilo referendum o interventnem zakonu. 24ur · 3 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  5. Confidence in Slovenia's government erodes ahead of October referendums. EU Alive · 30 Sep 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  6. Kakšno podporo javnosti ima potrjeni interventni zakon. Siol.net · 14 May 2026 · Pollster · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026

Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks