AI power wall: the largest US grid falls short of its reliability target a third time
The test The 2029/2030 Base Residual Auction for the PJM grid region, held between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, clears the region more than one percentage point below its Installed Reserve Margin, as stated in the grid operator's results report.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Likelihood 7 to 6.
- FERC approved the backstop procurement only in part on 29 Sep 2026; PJM postponed it with no new date [4]
Why it matters
The AI build-out is hitting the grid first at PJM, which serves 67 million people in 13 US states and Washington DC. Its last two capacity auctions cleared at the price cap and short of the reliability target, with data-centre load named as a driver; under its tariff, a third auction in a row clearing more than one point short requires a backstop auction. The next auction is in December 2026.
Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: the requirement rose 2,699 MW while only 524.7 MW of new supply cleared; the last margin was 5.6 points below target; PJM's report names future expected shortfalls; the backstop is stalled.
The other facts on file (7)
- 2028/2029 auction cleared at a 14.4% reserve margin, 5.6 points below the 20% target, 6,831 MW short; 2027/2028 was 6,516 MW short [2] (14 Jul 2026)
- First auctions in PJM history in which the whole region fell short [1] (14 Jul 2026)
- 2028/2029 price at the US$325/MW-day cap, US$16.4bn; uncapped simulation US$554.72 and US$29.7bn [2] (14 Jul 2026)
- 2029/2030 forecast peak 171,916 MW (+3.6%); reliability requirement 158,712 MW (+2,699 MW); target reserve margin 20.4%; cap US$337.83/MW-day; auction in December 2026 [3] (3 Sep 2026)
- 524.7 MW of new generation and uprates cleared in the 2028/2029 auction; cleared capacity rose 3,733 MW, mainly from higher accredited capacity factors [2] (14 Jul 2026)
- PJM's chief operating officer: a roughly 2 GW rise in forecast demand, largely caused by data center development [6] (15 Jul 2026)
- IEA: data-centre power use 415 TWh in 2024, about 945 TWh by 2030; nearly half of US demand growth; about 20% of planned projects at risk of delay [5] (2025)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
The 2029/2030 Base Residual Auction for the PJM grid region, held between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, clears the region more than one percentage point below its Installed Reserve Margin, as stated in the grid operator's results report.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Power bills and industryA shortfall keeps prices at the cap and raises system risk; PJM would run with slimmer reserves [1].
- Data-centre sitingPJM is designing Connect and Manage rules under which large new loads may have to run flexibly [1].
- GasGas made 46% of the supply cleared in July [1].
Sectors 2
- Energy and pipelines
- Technology
Countries 1
- United States primary
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Third shortfall
The December auction clears well below the target; the backstop rule applies.
- S2
Narrow miss
Higher accredited capacity and demand response close the gap to within one point.
- S3
Delay
The auction moves after a new rule or FERC order.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | PJM's results report on the 2029/2030 auction |
| S2 | Offered supply above 145,000 MW in the results report |
| S3 | A PJM schedule change |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Dec 2026 PJM 2029/2030 Base Residual Auction [3] Declared · Outside event
The other side
Prices at the cap signal a need to build: PJM is clearing its queue and fast-tracking up to 10 state-sponsored plants [1].
Connected in Strature
- United States
- World trade in AI-enabling goods falls year on year Drives: Power limits slow the data-centre build-out that drives AI goods trade.
- US natural gas (Henry Hub) averages US$5 per MMBtu or more in a winter month Shares a channel: Gas is the largest fuel in PJM's cleared capacity.
- South Korea's chip export boom turns into a fall Shares a channel: South Korea's chip exports rest on the US data-centre build-out.
- Singapore's chip-led boom turns into a technical recession Shares a channel: Singapore's chip-led growth rests on the same build-out.
- Hong Kong's AI-led export boom turns into a quarterly fall Shares a channel: Hong Kong's AI-led export boom rests on the same build-out.
- AI grid queue: two or more European grids ration new data-centre connections Shares a channel: Data-centre load strains European grids too.
Sources
6 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- PJM Capacity Auction Procures 138,318 MW of Generation Resources as Work Continues To Address Growing Electricity Demand. PJM Interconnection · 14 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report. PJM Interconnection · 14 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- 2029/2030 RPM Base Residual Auction Planning Period Parameters. PJM Interconnection · 3 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- FERC chair slams PJM 'mess' as country's largest grid operator delays power auction. Utility Dive · 30 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Energy and AI: Executive summary. International Energy Agency · 2025 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- PJM capacity prices hit price cap, reserve shortfall grows. Utility Dive · 15 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: Likelihood 7 to 6 · All risks