Comoros' IMF programme ends without its final review completed
The test By 3 Nov 2027, the IMF Executive Board has not completed the final scheduled review of Comoros' Extended Credit Facility arrangement approved on 1 Jun 2023.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
The IMF approved a four-year Extended Credit Facility of about US$43m for Comoros on 1 Jun 2023; five reviews were completed by 11 Feb 2026, the last two with waivers for missed targets. The programme ends in 2027. A final review left undone would cut the last disbursements and the IMF anchor that other partners lean on.
Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: missed criteria at the fourth and fifth reviews; arrears in autumn 2025; Games spending. Brakes: every review so far completed; performance improving. 3.
The other facts on file (5)
- Fifth review completed 11 Feb 2026; SDR 3.56m released; about US$28.62m of US$43m disbursed; arrangement ends 2027 [1] (11 Feb 2026)
- Waivers for missed end-June 2025 targets; 3 of 5 criteria and 13 of 15 benchmarks met [1] (11 Feb 2026)
- New external arrears in autumn 2025, since cleared; risks from the airport concession and 2027 Games [2] (23 Jan 2026)
- Fourth review 24 Jun 2025: 2 of 5 criteria met; cyclone-related shocks [3] (24 Jun 2025)
- Growth 4.1% and debt 34.1% of GDP projected for 2026 [1] (11 Feb 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
By 3 Nov 2027, the IMF Executive Board has not completed the final scheduled review of Comoros' Extended Credit Facility arrangement approved on 1 Jun 2023.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Budget financingThe undrawn balance, about US$14m, would not be paid [1].
- Partner supportThe IMF review is the anchor for other partners' budget support (no sourced figure).
Sectors 1
- Banks and insurers
Countries 1
- Comoros primary
Who is exposed
No figure on file: Comoros.
- Sectors
- Banks and insurers
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Completed
The remaining reviews pass with waivers, as before.
- S2
Slipped
A review is delayed by spending on the 2027 Island Games or new arrears.
- S3
Lapse
The arrangement ends with the final review undone.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | a staff-level agreement on the sixth review |
| S2 | a staff mission ending without agreement |
| S3 | no Board date for the final review by mid-2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- May 2027 Four years from the arrangement's approval on 1 Jun 2023 [1] Tentative · Outside event
- 3 Nov 2027 Date on which the event is judged [1] Declared · Strature date
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Sources
3 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Comoros: IMF completes fifth review under the ECF arrangement and concludes 2025 Article IV consultation. International Monetary Fund · 11 Feb 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Comoros: IMF reaches agreement on fifth review of the ECF. International Monetary Fund · 23 Jan 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Comoros: IMF completes the fourth review under the Extended Credit Facility arrangement. International Monetary Fund · 24 Jun 2025 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks