Russian gas through Bulgaria to Serbia stops for a week
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, gas deliveries through Bulgaria's TurkStream link to Serbia stop for 7 days in a row or more, as stated by the operator or the Bulgarian or Serbian government.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Gazprom contract, due to expire 30 Sep, extended to the end of 2026 on the same terms; it covers about 75% of Serbia's yearly gas use (Energy Community) [8]
Why it matters
Serbia feared in October 2025 that it would lose Russian gas via Bulgaria from 1 Jan 2026, but the flow went on, and its supply contract now runs to the end of 2026. The EU's phase-out law bans imports of Russian gas, not transit to a third country, on the text. A stop of a week or more is possible, but brakes hold.
Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: the EU phase-out, whose long-term ban starts inside the window; a drone blast near a pipeline; a contract that runs only to the end of 2026. Brakes: the regulation bans imports, not transit, on the text; Serbia's run of extensions; a Russia-friendly Bulgarian government.
The other facts on file (8)
- Serbia's energy minister: Serbia would not be able to receive Russian gas via Bulgaria from 1 Jan 2026 [1] (21 Oct 2025)
- Balkan Stream remains fully operational; Serbia expected to extend its Russian supply deal [2] (11 Feb 2026)
- Srbijagas: supply contract with Russia extended by three months [3] (24 Jun 2026)
- Regulation (EU) 2026/261 bans import of Russian gas; import defined as release for free circulation (Art. 2(8), Art. 3) [4] (26 Jan 2026)
- Ban on long-term pipeline contracts from 30 Sep 2027, by 1 Nov 2027 at the latest [5] (26 Jan 2026)
- Radev, who called for practical relations with Russia, won the 19 Apr 2026 election [6] (20 Apr 2026)
- A drone from Romanian airspace exploded near Kardam, about 1,000 metres from a Trans-Balkan pipeline compressor station; no casualties or damage [7] (8 Aug 2026)
- Hungary's 2025 gas imports of 12,416 million m3 entered 62.5% via Serbia [9] (31 Dec 2025)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, gas deliveries through Bulgaria's TurkStream link to Serbia stop for 7 days in a row or more, as stated by the operator or the Bulgarian or Serbian government.
Not under wayWho is exposed
No figure on file: Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines
- Goods
- Natural gas
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Transit continues
Short extensions keep gas flowing.
- S2
Legal squeeze
An EU step or a Bulgarian decision curbs transit.
- S3
Physical stop
Damage or a dispute halts flow for a week.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Serbia's contract renewed before 31 Dec 2026 |
| S2 | A Commission reading of transit under the regulation before 30 Sep 2027 |
| S3 | A strike near the pipeline route |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 31 Dec 2026 Serbia's current Russian gas contract ends [8] Tentative · Strature date
- 30 Sep 2027 EU ban on long-term Russian pipeline gas contracts begins [5] Declared · Outside event
- 1 Nov 2027 Latest start of that ban [5] Declared · Outside event
Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.
Connected in Strature
- Bulgaria
- Serbia
- The EU delays its ban on Russian gas because of the Gulf shock Shares a channel: The same EU phase-out law and its 2027 dates.
- Serbia's Pančevo refinery stops for two weeks or more for lack of a US licence Shares a channel: Serbia's other Russian energy channel.
- Serbia's new government applies EU sanctions on Russia Shares a channel: Serbia's stance on EU measures against Russia.
Sources
9 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Serbia warns of gas crisis as EU transit ban threatens Balkan Stream supply. Balkan Green Energy News · 21 Oct 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Serbia to extend Russian gas supply deal amid strong domestic reserves. Serbia Energy · 11 Feb 2026 · Industry · confidence low · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Srbijagas: Supply Contract with Russia Extended for Three More Months. BTA · 24 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Verordnung (EU) 2026/261, Art. 2 and Art. 3. gesetze.legal · 26 Jan 2026 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Phasing out Russian natural gas imports and improving monitoring of potential energy dependencies (summary). European Parliament, Legislative Observatory · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Bulgaria's former President Radev wins election: All you need to know. Al Jazeera · 20 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Bulgaria's Radev says drone exploded in Bulgaria's airspace. The Star (Reuters) · 8 Aug 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- La Serbie obtient une prolongation de trois mois de son accord gazier avec la Russie. Connaissance des Énergies (AFP) · 30 Sep 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Imports of natural gas by partner country, monthly data (nrg_ti_gasm). Eurostat · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks