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World risk · Supply chains and chokepoints

Wildfires kill 10 or more people in Algeria within a week

The test Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027, wildfires kill at least 10 people in Algeria within any 7 days, on the interior ministry's or civil protection's count or as two news agencies report.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
6Elevated steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth3
Depth2
Duration2
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

Why it matters

On 26 Aug 2026 wildfires killed 12 people in three Algerian provinces during an exceptional North African heatwave, after six deaths in July. Deadly fire summers recur in Algeria's north: 90 died in 2021, at least 38 in one wave in 2022 and 34 in 2023.

Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: two deadly waves in 2026; the threshold met in four of the last six summers (2021, 2022, 2023, 2026); recurrent heatwaves. Brakes: tolls vary widely year to year (no 2024 or 2025 toll of 10 found); firefighting built up after 2021.

Why Impact 3 Threshold case 10 deaths in a week.

The other facts on file (6)
  • Interior minister Said Sayoud reported 12 wildfire deaths (Jijel 5, Bejaia 4, Tizi Ouzou 3), 54 with burns, six in intensive care; 154 fires logged that day in a heatwave hitting Tunisia and Algeria [1] (26 Aug 2026)
  • The interior ministry registered six wildfire deaths as fires burned in several provinces [2] (22 Jul 2026)
  • Fires in 14 provinces killed at least 38 (24 in El Tarf near the Tunisian border); the summer 2022 toll reached 42 [3] (18 Aug 2022)
  • The interior ministry put the toll of fires that began on 23 Jul 2023 at 34 dead, ten of them soldiers; Bejaia worst hit [6] (24 Jul 2023)
  • The 2021 fires killed 90 people, including 33 soldiers; Tizi Ouzou worst hit [4] (15 Aug 2021)
  • The forest service put the area hit by the 2021 fires at more than 100,000 ha in 21 provinces [5] (1 May 2022)

Where it sits

ALGERIAMOROCCOTUNISIA11. Wildfires kill 10 or more people in Algeria within a week: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Wildfires kill10 or more people in Algeriawithin a weekLow impact · possibleDEADLY WILDFIRES IN ALGERIA0500 kmat 28°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
ALGERIATUNISIA11. Wildfires kill 10 or more people in Algeria within a week: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Deadly wildfiresin AlgeriaDEADLY WILDFIRES IN ALGERIA0500 kmat 28°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027, wildfires kill at least 10 people in Algeria within any 7 days, on the interior ministry's or civil protection's count or as two news agencies report.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. PeopleDeaths, burns and evacuations in the fire-hit provinces [1][3].
  3. Rural economyForests, farms and villages burn; in 2021 whole villages were destroyed [4].
  4. NeighboursFires in the north-east reach the Tunisian border area [3].

Sectors 1

  • Agriculture and food

Countries 2

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Algeria, Tunisia.

Sectors
Agriculture and food

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Mild season

    Fires burn but kill fewer than 10 in any week.

  2. S2

    Deadly week

    A heatwave brings a toll like August 2026.

  3. S3

    2021 repeat

    Dozens die and soldiers are caught in the fires.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1No multi-province fire toll from the interior ministry by end-September 2027
S2Civil protection logs more than 100 fires in a day, as on 26 Aug 2026
S3The army is sent to fight fires in several provinces

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Jul 2027 Fire season opens (July to September; the 2026 deaths came in July and August) [1] Tentative · Window
SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · ALGERIA · strature.net

The other side

Each deadly summer has pushed for more water bombers, firebreaks and early warning; a season without a mass toll would show that work paying off (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

6 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Wildfires kill 12 people across several Algerian provinces. Daily Maverick (Reuters) · 27 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  2. Six killed in Algeria forest fires: interior ministry. Africanews · 22 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  3. Algeria: the death toll from forest fires rises to at least 38. Africanews · 18 Aug 2022 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  4. Algerian wildfires still raging, death toll hits 90 including 33 soldiers. Africanews · 15 Aug 2021 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  5. 2021 Algeria wildfires. Wikipedia · 4 Nov 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  6. Incendies en Algérie : l'effroyable bilan s'alourdit encore. TSA (Tout sur l'Algérie) · 24 Jul 2023 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026

Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks