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World risk · Regulation and compliance

Uganda's coffee exports fall by 15% or more in the first half of 2027 as EU deforestation rules apply

The test Uganda's coffee export volume (60-kg bags) for January to June 2027 is at least 15% below January to June 2026, in the agriculture ministry's (MAAIF) monthly coffee reports.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. EUDR applies from 30 Dec 2026 to large and medium operators and from 30 Jun 2027 to micro and small operators [1]
  2. Coffee is 14.4% of Uganda's export earnings, second after gold at 40%; more than 1.6 million farmers registered against a target of 1.2 million by August 2026 [2]

Why it matters

The EU deforestation regulation applies to large and medium operators from 30 Dec 2026. Coffee is Uganda's second export after gold, worth about US$2.4-2.5bn a year. Farmer registration ran ahead of target by August 2026, so a sharp fall in volumes is a weak case for now.

Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: the EU rule; weaker world prices. Brakes, in force on the card's facts: registration ahead of target; rising earnings over 12 months. One driver and a weak second against a strong blocker.

The other facts on file (2)
  • April 2026 coffee earnings US$155.5m, about 10% below April 2025; 12 months to April 2026 up 24% to US$2.4bn (MAAIF data) [3] (8 Jun 2026)
  • 2025 merchandise exports US$13.43bn; gold US$6.40bn; coffee US$2.46bn (Bank of Uganda data) [4] (1 Mar 2026)

Where it sits

UGANDARWANDA11. Uganda's coffee exports fall by 15% or more in the first half of 2027 as EU deforestation rules apply: Low impact · unlikely (placed at the country)1 Uganda coffee hitby EU ruleLow impact · unlikelyUGANDA COFFEE HIT BY EU RULE0250 kmat 1°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
UGANDA11. Uganda's coffee exports fall by 15% or more in the first half of 2027 as EU deforestation rules apply: Low impact · unlikely (placed at the country)1 Uganda coffeehit by EU ruleUGANDA COFFEE HIT BY EU RULE0250 kmat 1°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Uganda's coffee export volume (60-kg bags) for January to June 2027 is at least 15% below January to June 2026, in the agriculture ministry's (MAAIF) monthly coffee reports.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Export earningsA 15% fall on half a year's coffee is about US$0.18bn (Strature calculation on [3]).
  3. Farm incomesSmallholders who cannot prove deforestation-free plots lose EU buyers (Strature's view).
  4. Trade routesBeans shift to buyers outside the EU at lower prices (Strature's view).

Sectors 1

  • Agriculture and food

Countries 4

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania.

Sectors
Agriculture and food
Goods
Coffee

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Smooth start

    Registered farms keep EU sales; volumes track prices.

  2. S2

    Paperwork drag

    Some lots stall at EU borders, but buyers elsewhere absorb them.

  3. S3

    Sharp drop

    EU buyers cut Ugandan lots and prices stay weak.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1MAAIF's January 2027 report shows volumes near January 2026
S2EU checks reported holding Ugandan lots in early 2027
S3Two months of volumes down by more than a tenth in early 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 30 Dec 2026 EUDR applies to large and medium operators [1] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 30 Jun 2027 EUDR applies to micro and small operators [1] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. Jul 2027 MAAIF report for June 2027 closes the half-year count [3] Tentative · Strature date

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · UGANDA · strature.net

The other side

Traceable, registered coffee can earn a premium with EU buyers, and early registration may win share from slower suppliers (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

4 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Regulation on deforestation-free products. European Commission (DG Environment) · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Slow registration worries coffee farmers as second deadline draws closer. Daily Monitor · 5 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Uganda coffee export earnings fall 10% in April as global coffee prices weaken. Food Business MEA · 8 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Uganda: BoU Reports 55 Percent Surge in Merchandise Exports to $13bn in 2025. AllAfrica (Nile Post) · 1 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks