World risk · Finance and markets

A rating agency puts Argentina in selective default

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, one of the three major rating agencies rates Argentina's foreign-currency sovereign debt in selective, restricted or full default, because a dollar bond payment is not made in full within its grace period or because a debt exchange is judged distressed.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page

Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood

3Low steady this month

Impact

5Elevated steady this month

Breadth4

Depth3

Duration7

Hard to substitute4

Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

23 Oct 2026Country risk closed at 707 bp on 23 Oct 2026 after touching 717; the market will price the election more and more [3]
14 Oct 2026Caputo said Argentina planned to issue about US$5bn of local-law dollar bonds (Bonares) in 2027 and could use the China swap if that refinancing is not possible [5]

Why it matters

Argentina's 2027 dollar payments are near three times those of 2026, and country risk is back above 700 bp as the market prices the 2027 election. The July 2026 payment was made and all three major agencies upgraded this year; no missed payment or distressed exchange is on the table.

Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: 2027 dollar payments near three times those of 2026; country risk back above 700 bp on 23 Oct. Brakes in force: the July 2026 bond payment made; three rating upgrades this year; a China swap fallback named by the minister. A driver held by blockers in force.

The other facts on file (3)

GMA Capital puts 2027 dollar maturities above US$23.6bn against about US$8.2bn in 2026: almost US$6bn to the IMF, more than US$10.6bn to private bondholders, about US$7bn on Bopreal and financial loans; World Bank and IDB guarantees under negotiation [1] (13 May 2026)
2027 payments near US$25bn; about US$4.2bn due on 9 Jul 2026; Caputo cited US$3.7bn of extra financing raised in 2026 and called a foreign bond issue an option, not a goal; country risk at 408 bp before 7 Jul [2] (7 Jul 2026)
Argentina paid about US$4.3bn on its dollar bonds in July 2026; Moody's raised Argentina to B3, positive outlook, after Fitch (May) and S&P (June) upgrades [4] (22 Jul 2026)

Where it sits

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, one of the three major rating agencies rates Argentina's foreign-currency sovereign debt in selective, restricted or full default, because a dollar bond payment is not made in full within its grace period or because a debt exchange is judged distressed.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
Bond marketMore than US$10.6bn of 2027 private bond payments would be in question, and the return to foreign markets would close [1].
IMF programmeAlmost US$6bn is owed to the IMF in 2027; a default rating would strain the programme [1].

Sectors 2

Banks and insurers
Government bonds

Countries 1

Argentina primary

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Argentina.

Sectors: Banks and insurers, Government bonds

Three scenarios and their signposts

S1
Refinanced
Guaranteed bank loans and a bond issue cover 2027.
S2
Swap bridge
Argentina draws the China swap to pay.
S3
Distressed exchange
Spreads stay above 700 bp and an exchange is offered.

The signposts of each scenario
Path	Signpost
S1	A World Bank or IDB guarantee signed
S2	A central bank statement on a swap draw
S3	An agency puts Argentina on watch for a downgrade

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

Jul 2027 July 2027 dollar bond payments, the month of the 2026 payment [2] Tentative · Window
3 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
Remind me

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.

Exhibit R-3 · ARGENTINA · strature.net

The other side

Argentina paid its July 2026 bonds, and the three agencies moved up this year [4]. The swap and guaranteed loans stand behind any market issue [1][5].

Connected in Strature

Argentina
A Peronist candidate finishes first in Argentina's first round on 24 Oct 2027 Driven by: The market is starting to price the 2027 election into Argentine spreads.
Argentina needs another IMF waiver to keep its programme on track Shares a channel: Almost US$6bn of 2027 payments go to the IMF.
Argentina's China swap line is ended, cut or called Shares a channel: The China swap is the named fallback for 2027 refinancing.

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

El mercado pone la lupa sobre los vencimientos de deuda en 2027. Memo · 13 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Caputo calmó al mercado, pero el 2027 sigue condicionado por el regreso al crédito externo. Perfil · 7 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Riesgo país en 717 puntos: qué lo impulsa hacia arriba. El Cronista · 23 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Moody's lifts Argentina debt rating in fresh boost to Milei. Buenos Aires Times · 22 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Argentina eyes tapping China swap to cover 2027 financing needs. Buenos Aires Times · 14 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks