The DA leaves South Africa's Government of National Unity
The test Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the DA leaves the national Government of National Unity: its federal executive announces withdrawal, or its cabinet ministers resign or are dismissed together.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Social Research Foundation survey via The Common Sense (Victory Research, 18 Sep-12 Oct 2026, n=3,100 phone, margin not stated): ANC 32%, DA 26% (low confidence) [3]
- DA internal polling (unpublished, via News24): Johannesburg DA 39% ANC 20%, Tshwane 35% to 27%; Ramaphosa: victory belongs to the ANC [2]
- Constitutional Court ordered ANC lists in six municipalities onto the ballot after a DA challenge; Mbalula said the ANC must re-look at the DA's role in the GNU [1]
- ANC 40.2% and DA 21.8% in 2024; ANC expected at about 35% or less, which FNF says will trigger an existential crisis for the party; ANC conference December 2027; no coalition law; six metros highly contested, many hung councils expected [9]
Why it matters
The ANC and the DA, the two largest parties, have shared national government since 2024. Local elections on 4 Nov 2026 pit them against each other in the big metros, where DA polling shows it ahead. On 15 Oct 2026 the ANC's Secretary-General said the party must re-look at the DA's role in the GNU. The coalition survived two crises in 2025.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: Mbalula's 15 Oct remarks, a direct metro contest on 4 Nov, an ANC slide before its 2027 conference. Brakes: the pact survived two 2025 crises, no exit named by either side, the ANC lacks a majority without partners.
Why Impact 5 Key price: the rand and government bond yields. Threshold case: the DA leaves and an ANC-led cabinet forms with other partners.
The other facts on file (6)
- Local government elections set for 4 Nov 2026 (announced 30 Apr 2026) [4] (30 Apr 2026)
- June 2025: Whitfield dismissed; DA ultimatum; Whitfield warned the DA could leave [5] (27 Jun 2025)
- DA left the National Dialogue but stayed in the GNU [6] (28 Jun 2025)
- April 2025: DA court challenge to the VAT rise; Treasury withdrew the rise a week before it took effect [7] (Apr 2025)
- 2024 National Assembly seats: ANC 159, DA 87 of 400 [10] (Jun 2024)
- Mbalula: the GNU will not collapse without the DA [11] (30 Jun 2025)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the DA leaves the national Government of National Unity: its federal executive announces withdrawal, or its cabinet ministers resign or are dismissed together.
Not under wayChannels 5 on the card
- CanadaNo direct Canadian channel.
- PolicyA new ANC-led majority would need parties that oppose much of the GNU's economic programme (Strature's view).
- MarketsA break would likely weaken the rand and lift bond yields (Strature's view; no sized figure found).
- BudgetThe next national budget, usually tabled in February, would need a new majority (Strature's view).
- Foreign tiesA change in who holds trade and foreign posts bears on AGOA and tariff talks.
Sectors 4
- Government bonds
- Banks and insurers
- Energy and pipelines
- Ports and logistics
Countries 2
- South Africa primary
- United States
Who is exposed
- Countries
- South Africa, United States
- Sectors
- Government bonds, Banks and insurers, Energy and pipelines, Ports and logistics
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Strained but intact
Metro coalitions are fought locally and the national pact holds to 2029.
- S2
Break after the vote
Metro deals with rival partners and the ballot dispute lead the DA's federal executive to leave.
- S3
Break in the budget
A 2027 budget fight, as in 2025, ends the pact.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Joint statement after the 4 Nov results |
| S2 | An ANC national executive decision on the GNU |
| S3 | The 2027 budget vote, usually in February (no source) |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 Results and metro coalition talks [9] Tentative · Outside event
- 4 Nov 2026 Local government elections [4] Declared · Outside event
- Feb 2027 National budget (usual timing) Tentative · Outside event
- 31 Oct 2027 End of the scored window Declared · Strature date
- Dec 2027 ANC national conference [9] Tentative · Outside event
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The other side
A clean break could give voters a clear choice before the national election due by August 2029 [12] (Strature's view). If the pact holds after a bruising campaign, it would show the coalition can survive contested elections.
Connected in Strature
- South Africa
- United States
- The US removes South Africa from AGOA's duty-free list Shares a channel: Who leads trade talks with Washington.
- The Reserve Bank raises South Africa's repo rate above 7.25% Shares a channel: Both bear on the rand and bond yields.
Sources
11 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- ANC to review DA's role in GNU: Mbalula. eNCA · 15 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Ramaphosa dismisses DA polling, insists ANC will win local government elections. IOL · 26 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- LGE 2026: latest polling. The Common Sense / Social Research Foundation · 27 Oct 2026 · Pollster · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- President sets 4 November 2026 as date for Local Government Elections. SAnews (South African Government News Agency) · 30 Apr 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- DA threatens to walk as Ramaphosa sparks GNU crisis with Whitfield firing. IOL · 27 Jun 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- DA withdraws from national dialogue but stays put in GNU. News24 · 28 Jun 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Final nail in the coffin of the VAT hike in South Africa. BusinessTech · 2025-04 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Coalitions: the South African 2026 local government election. Friedrich Naumann Foundation (Liberal Workshop South Africa) · 1 Sep 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- 2024 South African general election. Wikipedia · 28 Oct 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- GNU will not collapse without DA: Mbalula. IOL · 30 Jun 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Next South African general election. Wikipedia · 28 Oct 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks