El Niño drought hits the dry-season rice crop in Vietnam and Thailand
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 31 Jul 2027, Thailand's Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation lists 20 or more provinces as drought disaster areas at one time, or Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and Environment reports 50,000 ha or more of Mekong Delta rice damaged by drought or saltwater.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
Krungsri Research's base case is a very strong El Niño in October-November 2026, easing by mid-2027, with drought damage in Thailand of THB110.0bn in 2027. Vietnam's ministry warned that drought could affect about 350,000 ha of Mekong Delta winter-spring rice. Both countries are large rice exporters.
Why Likelihood 6 Likelihood scores the Thai limb. Pushes: Krungsri Research (8 Sep 2026) treats drought as the base case; Vietnam's ministry and forecasters warn of drought and saltwater. Brakes: El Niño eases by mid-2027 in the same base case; no source counts provinces. Leaning towards the event; not 7 with one base-case source.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case 20 Thai provinces or 50,000 ha of delta rice.
The other facts on file (5)
- Krungsri base case: very strong El Niño in Oct-Nov 2026, neutral by May-Jul 2027; 2027 drought damage THB110.0bn (about 0.56% of GDP); record-low water volumes in the East in 2027 [1] (8 Sep 2026)
- Drought could affect about 350,000 ha of winter-spring rice in the Mekong Delta (ministry) [2] (1 Jul 2026)
- Rainfall could fall 25-50% in Central Vietnam, the Central Highlands and the South; 2015-16 El Niño the benchmark [3] (17 Jun 2026)
- Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation named 28 provinces drought disaster zones [4] (8 May 2020)
- About 41,900 ha of Mekong Delta winter-spring rice affected in 2019-20, 26,000 ha a total loss [5] (22 Jun 2020)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 31 Jul 2027, Thailand's Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation lists 20 or more provinces as drought disaster areas at one time, or Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and Environment reports 50,000 ha or more of Mekong Delta rice damaged by drought or saltwater.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Mild dry season
El Niño eases early and neither threshold is met.
- S2
Thai drought zones
Thailand lists 20 or more provinces by March-April 2027.
- S3
Delta saltwater
Saltwater pushes deep into the Mekong Delta and damage passes 50,000 ha.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Rainfall near normal in December 2026 |
| S2 | The first provincial drought declarations in January 2027 |
| S3 | Low upstream flows in December 2026 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 Peak of the El Niño in Krungsri's base case (Oct-Nov 2026) [1] Tentative · Window
- May 2027 El Niño easing to neutral (May-Jul 2027) in Krungsri's base case [1] Tentative · Window
- 31 Jul 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
Exporters with stocks, and farmers who shift to shorter or less thirsty crops, can gain from firmer rice prices (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Rice
- Vietnam
- Thailand
- Cambodia
- A strong El Niño through winter 2026-27 cuts harvests and water supply Driven by: The same strong El Niño drives the dry season.
- Northern Vietnam runs short of power in the 2027 dry season Drives: Low water strains hydro power in Vietnam (Strature's view).
- Rotating power cuts return to Luzon in the El Niño dry season Shares a channel: The same El Niño and dry-season power strain.
- Drought is declared across three or more New Zealand regions Shares a channel: The same El Niño in New Zealand.
- India, Indonesia or Russia bans exports of rice, palm oil or wheat in the El Niño year Shares a channel: A smaller crop from two large rice exporters tightens the same rice market in the El Niño year.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Super El Niño and the Risks of Extreme Drought and Flooding in 2026–2027. Krungsri Research (Chaiwat Sowcharoensuk) · 8 Sep 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- El Nino forecast to intensify through 2026, posing major risks to agriculture. Viet Nam News · 1 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- El Nino strengthens, threatening water shortages across Vietnam. VietNamNet · 17 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- 28 drought-stricken provinces declared disaster zones. The Nation (Thailand) · 8 May 2020 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- More than 58,000 hectares of rice in Mekong Delta damaged due to drought. Open Development Mekong (SGGP) · 22 Jun 2020 · News · confidence low · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks