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World risk · Regulation and compliance

The EU puts Seychelles back on its tax list in 2027

The test At a revision of the EU list of non-cooperative jurisdictions for tax purposes adopted between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the Council places Seychelles in Annex I or Annex II.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
2Low steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth3
Depth1
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Council conclusions of 9 Oct 2026 on the revised list do not name Seychelles [6]

Why it matters

On 17 Feb 2026 the Council of the EU removed Seychelles from Annex II of its list of non-cooperative tax jurisdictions, after the Global Forum rated it largely compliant on exchange of information. The Council's next revision, on 9 Oct 2026, left it off both annexes. Relisting would bring back EU scrutiny and reputational cost for Seychelles' offshore financial sector.

Why Likelihood 2 Pushes: listing history; two revisions inside the window. Brakes: a fresh largely compliant rating; the October 2026 revision left Seychelles off; no source discusses relisting.

The other facts on file (3)
  • Council removed Seychelles from Annex II on 17 Feb 2026 after a largely compliant Global Forum rating in January 2026 [1] (23 Feb 2026)
  • Twice-yearly review of the EU list [2] (19 Feb 2026)
  • France removed Seychelles from its list by decree of 18 Apr 2025, published 7 May 2025 [3] (13 May 2025)

Where it sits

11. The EU puts Seychelles back on its tax list in 2027: Low impact · unlikely (placed at the country)1 The EU puts Seychellesback on its tax list in 2027Low impact · unlikelyEU RELISTS SEYCHELLES ON TAX0250 kmat 5°SMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. The EU puts Seychelles back on its tax list in 2027: Low impact · unlikely (placed at the country)1 EU relistsSeychelles on taxEU RELISTS SEYCHELLES ON TAX0200 kmat 5°SMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

At a revision of the EU list of non-cooperative jurisdictions for tax purposes adopted between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the Council places Seychelles in Annex I or Annex II.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Financial servicesRelisting would restore EU scrutiny of Seychelles entities under the EU list [2].
  3. ReputationThe ministry's notes show that both the EU and French listings weighed on the sector [1][3].

Sectors 1

  • Banks and insurers

Countries 1

  • Seychelles primary

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Seychelles.

Sectors
Banks and insurers

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Stays off

    Seychelles stays off both annexes at the 2027 revisions.

  2. S2

    New commitment

    The EU asks for a new commitment on a different criterion, short of listing.

  3. S3

    Relisted

    A new peer-review or tax-regime finding puts Seychelles back on a list.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1the February 2027 Council revision
S2an EU letter on a tax regime
S3a Global Forum or Code of Conduct Group finding

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Feb 2027 Council revision of the EU list [2] Tentative · Outside event
  2. Oct 2027 Council revision of the EU list [2] Tentative · Outside event
SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · SEYCHELLES · strature.net

The other side

Off the EU and French lists, Seychelles can market its financial centre as cooperative, as its minister said in February 2026 [1].

Sources

4 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Seychelles Removed from Annex II of EU list of Non-Cooperative Jurisdictions for Tax Purposes (the Greylist). Ministry of Finance, Economic Planning, Trade and Investment, Seychelles · 23 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. EU issues revised list of noncooperative jurisdictions for tax purposes. EY Global Tax News · 19 Feb 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Seychelles is removed from France's Blacklist of Non-Cooperative Jurisdictions for Tax Purposes. Ministry of Finance, Seychelles · 13 May 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Council conclusions of 9 October 2026 on the revised EU list of non-cooperative jurisdictions for tax purposes. Council of the European Union · 9 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks