New Zealand moves to phase 4 of its fuel plan: pump limits and priority users
The test Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the New Zealand government announces a move to phase 4 of the National Fuel Response Plan 2026, or any other binding limit on fuel sales to the public or allocation of fuel among users.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
New Zealand has had no refinery since Marsden Point closed and imports all its petrol, diesel and jet fuel, about four in five litres from South Korea and Singapore. It has been at phase 1 of its National Fuel Response Plan since 27 Mar 2026. Phase 4 brings weekly pump limits and priority access for critical users, but only if a severe and prolonged disruption is likely; the Finance Minister called that highly unlikely on 11 May.
Why Likelihood 3 Brakes: diesel cover, counting ships, up from 41.6 days (19 Apr) to 46.3 days (18 Oct); every fuel above its minimum with 9 ships on the water; phase 4 needs a loss of a large share of supply for many months; phases 2 and 3 first; the Finance Minister called phase 4 highly unlikely.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case: phase 4 for about three months with a savings target assumed near 10% (no target is published).
The other facts on file (9)
- Revised four-phase plan: phases 2 and 3 have no mandatory limits; phase 4 gives critical users uncapped access, savings targets for freight and business, weekly public purchase caps; Petroleum Demand Restraint Act 1981 penalties; phase 1 since 27 Mar 2026 [1] (11 May 2026)
- Finance Minister Nicola Willis called a move to phase 4 highly unlikely [2] (11 May 2026)
- RNZ reported cover of 51.2 days petrol, 41.6 diesel, 47.4 jet; MBIE called falls normal [3] (19 Apr 2026)
- Diesel near NZ$2.34 a litre; log volumes at export ports down more than 30% [5] (28 May 2026)
- About 60% of New Zealand's fuel first transited Hormuz (low confidence) [6] (1 Apr 2026)
- About 80% of supply from South Korea and Singapore, refineries drawing much of their crude from Saudi Arabia and the UAE (as reported) [7] (31 Mar 2026)
- Diesel 2,439 kt in 2024; no crude imports since Marsden Point closed [8] (2024)
- Extra NZ$50 a week through the In-Work Tax Credit to about 143,000 families from 7 Apr 2026 [11] (24 Mar 2026)
- Petroleum imports doubled to NZ$1.5bn in June 2026 (low confidence) [12] (Jul 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the New Zealand government announces a move to phase 4 of the National Fuel Response Plan 2026, or any other binding limit on fuel sales to the public or allocation of fuel among users.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Freight, farming and forestrySavings targets for diesel users; log exports already fell with the May price spike [5].
- HouseholdsWeekly pump limits with exceptions [1]; NZ$50 a week In-Work Tax Credit boost already paid [11].
- PricesTransport and food costs add to an inflation path already lifted by fuel (see our New Zealand interest-rate risk).
Goods 2
Sectors 3
- Ports and logistics
- Agriculture and food
- Energy and pipelines
Straits 1
Countries 3
- New Zealand primary
- South Korea
- Singapore
Who is exposed
- Countries
- New Zealand, South Korea, Singapore
- Sectors
- Ports and logistics, Agriculture and food, Energy and pipelines
- Goods
- Refined fuels, Crude oil
- Straits
- Strait of Hormuz
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Phase 1 holds
Ships keep arriving and stocks stay above the minimums.
- S2
Conservation
A new Gulf strike or a US export ban cuts cargoes; phase 2 or 3 with voluntary savings.
- S3
Phase 4
Asian refiners cut product exports for months; pump limits begin.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | MBIE weekly figures from 29 Oct 2026 |
| S2 | A US diesel export order |
| S3 | A phase 4 statement by ministers |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
Where the card uses it Strature forecast F-0074 resolves (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran). Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 20 Nov 2026 Strature forecast F-0074 resolves (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran). Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [14] Declared · Strature date
- Dec 2026 IEA's expected fourth-quarter gasoil shortfall (Oct-Dec) [9] Tentative · Window
- Jul 2027 Earliest restocking the IEA expects (second half of 2027) [9] Tentative · Window
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Connected in Strature
- Was the Strait of Hormuz closed, or repriced cargo by cargo?
- Refined fuels
- Crude oil
- Strait of Hormuz
- New Zealand
- South Korea
- Singapore
- A big fuel exporter bans or halts diesel exports to protect its home market Driven by: A US diesel export curb is the clearest new route to a cargo loss.
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Driven by: South Korean and Singapore refineries draw much of their crude from the Gulf.
- Shipping through the Singapore Strait stops for 48 hours or more Driven by: Product cargoes from Singapore pass the Singapore Strait.
- Australia orders diesel rationing or allocation Shares a channel: The same Asian refining hubs and the IEA gasoil shortfall.
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifts the OCR to 3.50% or more Shares a channel: Fuel lifts the December-quarter inflation path.
Sources
13 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Pump limits, spot checks: Govt reveals level four fuel ration plan. 1News · 11 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Government details who critical fuel users would be if oil crisis worsens. interest.co.nz · 11 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Fuel stock still stable despite another fall, government says. RNZ · 22 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Fuel stock and shipping updates. Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment · 21 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- NZ fuel stocks hold above minimum as orders run through to August. Wood Central · 28 May 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- The New Zealand fuel crisis laid bare in nine simple charts. The Spinoff · 1 Apr 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Where does New Zealand's fuel come from and how does it get here?. RNZ · 31 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
- Energy in New Zealand 2025: Oil. Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment · 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Oil Market Report, October 2026. International Energy Agency · 14 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Diesel could top $4 and rationing possible if US goes ahead with export ban, analyst warns. ABC News · 24 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Government to announce support package for families under the pump as petrol hits $4 a litre in some areas. NZ Herald · 24 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
- New Zealand June trade surplus $23 million, fuel imports double. NewsWire · 2026-07 · News · confidence low · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
- Forecast register, F-0074. Strature · 21 Aug 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks