Jordan's Aqaba-Amman water carrier misses financial close by mid-2027
The test By 30 Jun 2027, the Aqaba-Amman Water Desalination and Conveyance project (the National Water Carrier) has not reached financial close, as announced by the Ministry of Water and Irrigation or the sponsors.
Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
Jordan's National Water Carrier would desalinate about 300 million m³ a year at Aqaba, roughly 40% of the country's drinking water, for about US$5.8bn with financing. It was 'nearing financial close' a year ago, and the IFC still lists it as pending signing. Meanwhile the extra water Israel sold Jordan stopped in late 2025.
Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: a year since the 'nearing close' reports; still pending signing; a US$5.8bn deal in a war-hit region. Brakes: loans approved by the IFC and AFD; works due to start in 2026. About even: 5, borderline with 4.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case close just after 30 Jun 2027, a slip of months. A delay of years to the 2030 supply is the worse case.
The other facts on file (5)
- About 300 million m³ a year, roughly 40% of drinking water, US$4.3bn (about US$5.8bn with financing), operations targeted for 2030; final agreement signed April 2026; remaining financing still being finalised in July; Cabinet approval of a US$97m AFD loan reported [1] (8 Aug 2026)
- Extra 50 million m³ a year of Israeli water under the 2021 deal stopped when it expired in late 2025 and was not renewed (unnamed official on Al Mamlaka TV) [2] (27 Feb 2026)
- Jordan has about 61 m³ of renewable water per person a year (Jemima Oakey, Carboun Institute) [3] (7 Jul 2026)
- IFC board approved a US$375m loan and a US$32m guarantee on 19 Feb 2026; project listed as Pending Signing; about US$6bn; 438 km pipeline and about 280 MW of solar; project company owned by Meridiam (90%) and Suez (10%) [4] (25 Feb 2026)
- MEED reported the project nearing financial close, cost up from US$3.5bn to about US$6bn, construction to start in 2026 and take four years [5] (11 Nov 2025)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
By 30 Jun 2027, the Aqaba-Amman Water Desalination and Conveyance project (the National Water Carrier) has not reached financial close, as announced by the Ministry of Water and Irrigation or the sponsors.
Not under wayThree scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Close
Lenders sign and the sponsors announce close.
- S2
Slip of months
Close comes just after 30 Jun 2027.
- S3
Stall
Costs or the regional war hold the deal for years.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | The IFC page moves from Pending Signing |
| S2 | A new close date from the ministry |
| S3 | A lender withdraws or the cost rises again |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 30 Jun 2027 Judgement date for financial close (set by the card; no official target) [5] Tentative · Strature date
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The other side
Close would start a US$6bn build of a desalination plant, a 438 km pipeline and a solar plant, with work for builders and suppliers [4] (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Jordan
- Israel
- France
- Israeli pipeline gas to Jordan stops for two weeks or more again Shares a channel: Jordan relies on Israel for both pipeline gas and extra water, and the water deal has already lapsed.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Jordan national water carrier: AFD financing. Water Today · 8 Aug 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- Jordan-Israel water. The National · 27 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- Israel 'weaponising' water as parched Jordan fights for supply deal. The New Arab · 7 Jul 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- Aqaba Amman Water Desalination & Conveyance (AAWDC), project 47924. IFC Project Information and Data Portal · 25 Feb 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- Jordan's $6bn water project nears financial close. MEED · 11 Nov 2025 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks