Key question KQ-37 · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

On 3 Nov 2027, what has ended or cut a US tariff programme in force on 4 Nov 2026: a law of the new Congress, the President, a court, or nothing?

From Q-029 Sealed 6 Nov 2026 Resolves by 3 Nov 2027 Open

Our standing estimate

Six outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

President cuts Canada's 50% duty (to 3 November 2027)

32.7% · unlikely · confidence not registered

No such law; the President ends Canada's Section 338 duty, lowers its 50% rate or takes a whole list out of it, and the cut stands on 3 Nov 2027.

F-0245 · Open
No duty is cut (to 3 November 2027)

28.2% · unlikely · confidence not registered

On 3 Nov 2027 no law, presidential act or unstayed court ruling has ended or cut any programme; rises already proclaimed may have taken effect.

F-0248 · Open
President cuts another duty (to 3 November 2027)

21.3% · unlikely · confidence not registered

No law and no Canada cut; the President ends or cuts a Section 232 or 301 programme, its rate, a whole partner or a whole sector, not replaced within 30 days, and the cut stands on 3 Nov 2027.

F-0246 · Open
New Congress cuts duty by law (to 3 November 2027)

10% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

A law of the new (120th) Congress, signed or passed over his veto, ends, cuts or makes subject to Congress's approval a Section 232, 301 or 338 tariff programme, and the cut stands on 3 Nov 2027.

F-0244 · Open
All other outcomes (to 3 November 2027)

4% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

An Act of the outgoing (119th) Congress cuts a programme and no law of the new Congress does, or the documents published by 30 Nov 2027 do not settle which outcome holds.

F-0249 · Open
A court stops a duty (to 3 November 2027)

3.8% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

No law and no presidential cut; a US trade court, appeals court or the Supreme Court rules a programme exceeds its statute, and on 3 Nov 2027 the ruling is final or not stayed and collection under it has stopped.

F-0247 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (6 Nov 2026). Every tariff programme in force today rests on a trade law in which Congress handed the President the power to set duties.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.

Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.	Row	Sealed	Estimate	Status
1	F-0245	6 Nov 2026	32.7%	Open
2	F-0248	6 Nov 2026	28.2%	Open
3	F-0246	6 Nov 2026	21.3%	Open
4	F-0244	6 Nov 2026	10%	Open
5	F-0249	6 Nov 2026	4%	Open
6	F-0247	6 Nov 2026	3.8%	Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Trade, tariffs and sanctions

The brief finds most tariffs in force today look set to stay through 2027, and some will rise.
Will tariff relief come for Canada, and by a deal or by Congress?
The firm puts the President cutting it, with no law, at 33% within a year (to 3 November 2027), against 10% for a law cutting any tariff. Read it in the brief
Will the courts strike the remaining tariffs, and will importers get their money back?
The firm puts a court ruling stopping a tariff, with no law or presidential cut beside it, at 4% by 3 November 2027 and 4% by 31 December 2027. Read it in the brief
Can the new majority use the budget and the debt limit to force a tariff change?
The firm puts a law of the new Congress cutting a tariff, by any route, at 10% by 3 November 2027 and 12% by 31 December 2027. Read it in the brief
Does a Democratic Congress mean an end to tariffs on Mexico and other partners?
The firm puts a presidential cut of another programme, such as a whole partner or sector, at 21% within a year (to 3 November 2027) Read it in the brief

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

F-0244
“Resolves if: An Act of Congress or joint resolution enacted by the new (120th) Congress between 3 Jan 2027 and 3 Nov 2027, signed by the President or passed over his veto by two-thirds of each House, ends, cuts or makes subject to congressional approval a tariff programme in force on 4 Nov 2026 (Section 232, Section 301 or Section 338), and the cut stands on 3 Nov 2027; whatever the President or the courts also do.”
F-0245
“Resolves if: No law counted on AX1 stands; between 5 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027 a proclamation or a published US-Canada arrangement ends the Section 338 duty on Canadian goods, lowers its 50% rate, or takes a whole list (motor vehicles, dairy or alcohol) out of it, and the cut stands on 3 Nov 2027; whatever else the President or a court cuts.”
F-0246
“Resolves if: No law counted on AX1 stands and the Section 338 duty is not cut; between 5 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027 a proclamation, memorandum or USTR notice of action ends or cuts a Section 232 or Section 301 programme in force on 4 Nov 2026 - a whole programme, its rate, a whole partner (for example Mexico or China) or a whole product sector - and the cut stands on 3 Nov 2027, not replaced within 30 days by an equal or higher duty on the same goods.”
F-0247
“Resolves if: No law counted on AX1 and no presidential cut counted on AX2 stands; between 5 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027 the Court of International Trade, the Federal Circuit or the Supreme Court rules that a programme in force on 4 Nov 2026 exceeds its statute, and on 3 Nov 2027 the ruling is final or not stayed and collection under it has stopped.”
F-0248
“Resolves if: On 3 Nov 2027 no law, no presidential act and no unstayed court ruling has ended or cut any Section 232, Section 301 or Section 338 programme in force on 4 Nov 2026 (changes of individual tariff lines and cuts replaced within 30 days do not count); rises already proclaimed may have taken effect.”
F-0249
“Resolves if: An Act of the outgoing (119th) Congress, enacted between 5 Nov 2026 and 2 Jan 2027, cuts a programme in scope and no law of the new Congress does; or the documents published by 30 Nov 2027 do not settle which of the other five scenarios holds on 3 Nov 2027.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint

F-0244 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 be46acdbbb058a21fb0539cb7c2c16da13432a2ab619a6b21135c457154ab91f
F-0245 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 eb4eb67c0099073f8a9b483b3a56b8294a29a668a301cf1ebeab5a257dc40f1c
F-0246 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 bd65e39208ae1103bcaac3a0f2bdf6ec95bcbfc7e86f2e09c81b0e1e9fba0bcf
F-0247 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 064c344e7f994274a0c5a1a4711a6b445e1904e8be2e3d78f09137227032d057
F-0248 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 2194496e742fa26d04703e22224f346f149de09c6548b0e635d7433d9cd3d81f
F-0249 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 51c34a366a053dfb45b1685ce53f0eb5ada8049dabf7ea844d5e78018037d111

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Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.