Key question KQ-83 · Regulation and compliance

Between 15 Sep 2026 and 30 Jun 2027, is a bill amending the Insurance Companies Act to let insurers make equity investments in infrastructure introduced in Parliament, alone or as a division of a budget implementation bill?

From Q-034 Sealed 10 Nov 2026 Resolves by 30 Jun 2027 Open

Our standing estimate

Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

Insurance law amendment tabled

50% · roughly even chance · confidence not registered

A bill (alone or as a division of a budget implementation bill) amending the Insurance Companies Act to let insurers make equity investments in infrastructure is introduced in Parliament between 15 Sep 2026 and 30 Jun 2027.

F-0447 · Open
No: Insurance law amendment tabled

46% · roughly even chance · confidence not registered

The documents read on 30 Jun 2027 show it did not happen in the window.

F-0448 · Open
Not settled: Insurance law amendment tabled

4% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

The record read on 30 Jun 2027 does not settle whether it happened in the window (a document undated, unreadable, or not clearly tied to the line).

F-0449 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (10 Nov 2026). A bill amending the Insurance Companies Act to let insurers make equity investments in infrastructure could come alone or as a division of a budget implementation bill.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.

Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.	Row	Sealed	Estimate	Status
1	F-0447	10 Nov 2026	50%	Open
2	F-0448	10 Nov 2026	46%	Open
3	F-0449	10 Nov 2026	4%	Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Regulation and compliance

Introduction counts, not passage: the brief puts a tabled amendment at a roughly even chance by 30 June 2027.

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

Canada

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

F-0447
“Resolves if: A bill (alone or as a division of a budget implementation bill) amending the Insurance Companies Act to let insurers make equity investments in infrastructure is introduced in Parliament between 15 Sep 2026 and 30 Jun 2027.”
F-0448
“Resolves if: The documents read on 2027-06-30 show that this did NOT happen in its window: A bill (alone or as a division of a budget implementation bill) amending the Insurance Companies Act to let insurers make equity investments in infrastructure is introduced in Parliament between 15 Sep 2026 and 30 Jun 2027.”
F-0449
“Resolves if: The record read on 2027-06-30 does not settle whether this happened in its window (a document undated, unreadable, or not clearly tied to the line): A bill (alone or as a division of a budget implementation bill) amending the Insurance Companies Act to let insurers make equity investments in infrastructure is introduced in Parliament between 15 Sep 2026 and 30 Jun 2027.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint

F-0447 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 fdc7ced353c5eacd0bad65019c723fba901b87828b8d5bc298e5547f352afcb1
F-0448 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 ac5918da0f1a335062005cf950b3fb5318b24b9776848d1d350f30dd6fe4d584
F-0449 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 ef5c45dc14898bd6f9c6fddcbcb1ef7bf489142b0214473cc2ba26bd2966b7f8

Go further

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.