Sign in Get in touch

Key question KQ-82 · Regulation and compliance

By 30 Jun 2027, for any of the four airports, is a charge rule published in a bill, regulation or government framework, or a request for qualifications or proposals issued by the Government of Canada or its agent?

From Q-034 Sealed 10 Nov 2026 Resolves by 30 Jun 2027 Open

Our standing estimate

Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

  1. No: Charge rule or request published

    85% · very likely · confidence not registered

    The documents read on 30 Jun 2027 show it did not happen in the window.

    F-0445 · Open

  2. Charge rule or request published

    10% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

    By 30 Jun 2027, for any of the four airports, a charge rule (a formula, a cap or a regulator's rule for aeronautical charges) is published in a bill, regulation or government framework, or a request for qualifications or proposals is issued by the Government of Canada or its agent; a minister's statement that contracts will set fees does not count.

    F-0444 · Open

  3. Not settled: Charge rule or request published

    5% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

    The record read on 30 Jun 2027 does not settle whether it happened in the window (a document undated, unreadable, or not clearly tied to the line).

    F-0446 · Open

An earlier brief of ours prices, to 31 Oct 2027, an outcome in which Ottawa publishes the concession length and charge regime for at least one of these airports and no qualifying C$1bn-plus build commitment is announced; that forecast is scored separately.

The situation when it was sealed (10 Nov 2026). Budget 2026 writes a term of 40 to 50 years for the airport concessions, but no rule for what an operator may charge.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

How the estimates moved: each point is a sealed register row; the figures are in the table that follows.050100%10 Nov 2026123
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.RowSealedEstimateStatus
1F-044510 Nov 202685%Open
2F-044410 Nov 202610%Open
3F-044610 Nov 20265%Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Regulation and compliance

  • A minister's statement that contracts will set fees does not count; a published formula, cap or regulator's rule does, and so does a formal request for an operator.

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

  • F-0444

    “Resolves if: By 30 Jun 2027, for any of the four airports, a charge rule (a formula, a cap or a regulator's rule for aeronautical charges) is published in a bill, regulation or government framework, or a request for qualifications or proposals is issued by the Government of Canada or its agent; a minister's statement that contracts will set fees does not count.”

  • F-0445

    “Resolves if: The documents read on 2027-06-30 show that this did NOT happen in its window: By 30 Jun 2027, for any of the four airports, a charge rule (a formula, a cap or a regulator's rule for aeronautical charges) is published in a bill, regulation or government framework, or a request for qualifications or proposals is issued by the Government of Canada or its agent; a minister's statement that contracts will set fees does not count.”

  • F-0446

    “Resolves if: The record read on 2027-06-30 does not settle whether this happened in its window (a document undated, unreadable, or not clearly tied to the line): By 30 Jun 2027, for any of the four airports, a charge rule (a formula, a cap or a regulator's rule for aeronautical charges) is published in a bill, regulation or government framework, or a request for qualifications or proposals is issued by the Government of Canada or its agent; a minister's statement that contracts will set fees does not count.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
  • F-0444 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 560975fd6d0eccb6e99d3cf52fbc10c979c2418d9f1af270428bd6884656a09c
  • F-0445 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 8345e5fd3308201ae03f82ef1180930fa7f39a47e4dd4ae22b0e94dde9b0aaec
  • F-0446 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 f9617c3c6971f7181f90798754d60ffaff5211af7c1442e21e0b2adf887087d2

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.