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Key question KQ-81 · Regulation and compliance

Between 15 Sep 2026 and 30 Jun 2027, is a government bill providing for operating concessions at one or more of Toronto Pearson, Vancouver, Montreal-Trudeau or Calgary introduced (first reading) in the House of Commons or the Senate?

From Q-034 Sealed 10 Nov 2026 Resolves by 30 Jun 2027 Open

Our standing estimate

Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

  1. No: Airport bill tabled by June

    54% · roughly even chance · confidence not registered

    The documents read on 30 Jun 2027 show it did not happen in the window.

    F-0442 · Open

  2. Airport bill tabled by June

    44% · unlikely · confidence not registered

    A government bill providing for operating concessions at one or more of Toronto Pearson, Vancouver, Montreal-Trudeau or Calgary is introduced (first reading) in the House of Commons or the Senate between 15 Sep 2026 and 30 Jun 2027.

    F-0441 · Open

  3. Not settled: Airport bill tabled by June

    2% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

    The record read on 30 Jun 2027 does not settle whether it happened in the window (a document undated, unreadable, or not clearly tied to the line).

    F-0443 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (10 Nov 2026). Budget 2026 targets a first operator by early 2029, and the airports have no bill.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

How the estimates moved: each point is a sealed register row; the figures are in the table that follows.050100%10 Nov 2026123
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.RowSealedEstimateStatus
1F-044210 Nov 202654%Open
2F-044110 Nov 202644%Open
3F-044310 Nov 20262%Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Regulation and compliance

  • It is the March test over a longer window, and an enabling bill is one of the three airport steps that split the brief's main outcomes.

  • Which airport goes first, under what law, and on what timetable?

    Budget 2026 targets a first operator by early 2029 (Exhibit 23). The firm puts a bill tabled by 31 March 2027 at 26%, and by 30 June at 44% Read it in the brief

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

  • F-0441

    “Resolves if: A government bill providing for operating concessions at one or more of Toronto Pearson, Vancouver, Montreal-Trudeau or Calgary is introduced (first reading) in the House of Commons or the Senate between 15 Sep 2026 and 30 Jun 2027.”

  • F-0442

    “Resolves if: The documents read on 2027-06-30 show that this did NOT happen in its window: A government bill providing for operating concessions at one or more of Toronto Pearson, Vancouver, Montreal-Trudeau or Calgary is introduced (first reading) in the House of Commons or the Senate between 15 Sep 2026 and 30 Jun 2027.”

  • F-0443

    “Resolves if: The record read on 2027-06-30 does not settle whether this happened in its window (a document undated, unreadable, or not clearly tied to the line): A government bill providing for operating concessions at one or more of Toronto Pearson, Vancouver, Montreal-Trudeau or Calgary is introduced (first reading) in the House of Commons or the Senate between 15 Sep 2026 and 30 Jun 2027.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
  • F-0441 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 1b9ce11310aebecf4242a17d94f10fd5f36d8efe945eeea25b4701ed934f4e1e
  • F-0442 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 c4c17ea47211461bd2ef302e19c666c6014b26ac597dfdddf5d7fd775d2cee22
  • F-0443 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 c33b7a82d5c797ca621d698f3be9cc27eab8e89e6a4712b48f45721607a6defd

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.