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Key question KQ-80 · Regulation and compliance

Between 15 Sep 2026 and 31 Mar 2027, is a government bill providing for operating concessions at one or more of Toronto Pearson, Vancouver, Montreal-Trudeau or Calgary introduced (first reading) in the House of Commons or the Senate?

From Q-034 Sealed 10 Nov 2026 Resolves by 31 Mar 2027 Open

Our standing estimate

Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

  1. No: Airport bill tabled by March

    72% · likely · confidence not registered

    The documents read on 30 Jun 2027 show it did not happen in the window.

    F-0439 · Open

  2. Airport bill tabled by March

    26% · unlikely · confidence not registered

    A government bill providing for operating concessions at one or more of Toronto Pearson, Vancouver, Montreal-Trudeau or Calgary is introduced (first reading) in the House of Commons or the Senate between 15 Sep 2026 and 31 Mar 2027 (none was among the 198 bills of the session at the 9 Nov 2026 freeze).

    F-0438 · Open

  3. Not settled: Airport bill tabled by March

    2% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

    The record read on 30 Jun 2027 does not settle whether it happened in the window (a document undated, unreadable, or not clearly tied to the line).

    F-0440 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (10 Nov 2026). Budget 2026 gave the four airport concessions a term and a target date, but no rule for what an operator may charge, and the airports have no bill.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

How the estimates moved: each point is a sealed register row; the figures are in the table that follows.050100%10 Nov 2026123
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.RowSealedEstimateStatus
1F-043910 Nov 202672%Open
2F-043810 Nov 202626%Open
3F-044010 Nov 20262%Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Regulation and compliance

  • The brief puts a bill tabled by 31 March 2027 at 26%, and by 30 June at 44%; Budget 2026 targets a first operator by early 2029.

  • Which airport goes first, under what law, and on what timetable?

    Budget 2026 targets a first operator by early 2029 (Exhibit 23). The firm puts a bill tabled by 31 March 2027 at 26%, and by 30 June at 44% Read it in the brief

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

  • F-0438

    “Resolves if: A government bill providing for operating concessions at one or more of Toronto Pearson, Vancouver, Montreal-Trudeau or Calgary is introduced (first reading) in the House of Commons or the Senate between 15 Sep 2026 and 31 Mar 2027 (none was among the 198 bills of the session at the 9 Nov 2026 freeze).”

  • F-0439

    “Resolves if: The documents read on 2027-06-30 show that this did NOT happen in its window: A government bill providing for operating concessions at one or more of Toronto Pearson, Vancouver, Montreal-Trudeau or Calgary is introduced (first reading) in the House of Commons or the Senate between 15 Sep 2026 and 31 Mar 2027 (none was among the 198 bills of the session at the 9 Nov 2026 freeze).”

  • F-0440

    “Resolves if: The record read on 2027-06-30 does not settle whether this happened in its window (a document undated, unreadable, or not clearly tied to the line): A government bill providing for operating concessions at one or more of Toronto Pearson, Vancouver, Montreal-Trudeau or Calgary is introduced (first reading) in the House of Commons or the Senate between 15 Sep 2026 and 31 Mar 2027 (none was among the 198 bills of the session at the 9 Nov 2026 freeze).”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
  • F-0438 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 23cefd009514e8949102b8badb205bb65f4f4d2017148ddce6625488bcb877d2
  • F-0439 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 933e6c84c2a9d2da23eb2631f2743178d215bb5793f9d759bbbe3cd6bbeb63c9
  • F-0440 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 fe34c08904367d59267092eee5689e06aa4d00ce2298c1c5a07f59b589bb0f2f

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.