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Key question KQ-77 · Finance and markets

Does any of TD, Scotiabank, BMO or CIBC publish, in a document dated 15 Sep 2026 to 30 Jun 2027, an amount against its summit figure or a reporting category it counts towards the figure?

From Q-034 Sealed 10 Nov 2026 Resolves by 30 Jun 2027 Open

Our standing estimate

Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

  1. No: A bank reports against its figure

    63% · likely · confidence not registered

    The documents read on 30 Jun 2027 show it did not happen in the window.

    F-0430 · Open

  2. A bank reports against its figure

    30% · unlikely · confidence not registered

    Any of TD, Scotiabank, BMO or CIBC publishes, in a document dated 15 Sep 2026 to 30 Jun 2027, an amount against its summit figure or a reporting category for it (a named measure that it counts towards the figure: lending, underwriting, advice, a sector or a programme); a restatement of the figure alone does not count.

    F-0429 · Open

  3. Not settled: A bank reports against its figure

    7% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

    The record read on 30 Jun 2027 does not settle whether it happened in the window (a document undated, unreadable, or not clearly tied to the line).

    F-0431 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (10 Nov 2026). TD, Scotiabank, BMO and CIBC pledged C$322bn in September; in the releases read to early November 2026, none states an amount against it.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

How the estimates moved: each point is a sealed register row; the figures are in the table that follows.050100%10 Nov 2026123
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.RowSealedEstimateStatus
1F-043010 Nov 202663%Open
2F-042910 Nov 202630%Open
3F-043110 Nov 20267%Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Finance and markets

  • It is wider than the TD question: any of the four banks counts, and so does a named measure a bank counts towards its figure; a restatement of the figure alone does not.

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

  • F-0429

    “Resolves if: Any of TD, Scotiabank, BMO or CIBC publishes, in a document dated 15 Sep 2026 to 30 Jun 2027, an amount against its summit figure or a reporting category for it (a named measure - lending, underwriting, advice, a sector or a programme - that it counts towards the figure); a restatement of the figure alone does not count.”

  • F-0430

    “Resolves if: The documents read on 2027-06-30 show that this did NOT happen in its window: Any of TD, Scotiabank, BMO or CIBC publishes, in a document dated 15 Sep 2026 to 30 Jun 2027, an amount against its summit figure or a reporting category for it (a named measure - lending, underwriting, advice, a sector or a programme - that it counts towards the figure); a restatement of the figure alone does not count.”

  • F-0431

    “Resolves if: The record read on 2027-06-30 does not settle whether this happened in its window (a document undated, unreadable, or not clearly tied to the line): Any of TD, Scotiabank, BMO or CIBC publishes, in a document dated 15 Sep 2026 to 30 Jun 2027, an amount against its summit figure or a reporting category for it (a named measure - lending, underwriting, advice, a sector or a programme - that it counts towards the figure); a restatement of the figure alone does not count.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
  • F-0429 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 f21fdfad358a2d1b8c35095c71d42cb6d54ee5c92b194f04d4bfe0ccefe1d1fa
  • F-0430 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 9c04a2f453c20be7828f158c7922e92535108081e3acc379d38997bc895ac871
  • F-0431 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 e9144d1642a9fe8b42043d216de43198554d5a5df69dfcd84b20a42ffa52df96

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.