Our standing estimate
Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
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No: TD states an amount
76% · likely · confidence not registered
The documents read on 30 Jun 2027 show it did not happen in the window.
F-0427 · Open
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TD states an amount
17% · very unlikely · confidence not registered
TD Bank Group states, in a document it publishes dated 15 Sep 2026 to 30 Jun 2027, an amount lent, underwritten, advised, deployed or committed against its C$150bn summit commitment (an amount TD itself ties to the C$150bn; the 22 Sep Cohere release, which says only that it builds on the commitment, does not count).
F-0426 · Open
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Not settled: TD states an amount
7% · very unlikely · confidence not registered
The record read on 30 Jun 2027 does not settle whether it happened in the window (a document undated, unreadable, or not clearly tied to the line).
F-0428 · Open
The situation when it was sealed (10 Nov 2026). TD pledged C$150bn; in the releases read to early November 2026, no bank states an amount against the C$322bn the four banks pledged in September.