Key question KQ-76 · Finance and markets

Does TD Bank Group state, in a document it publishes dated 15 Sep 2026 to 30 Jun 2027, an amount lent, underwritten, advised, deployed or committed against its C$150bn summit commitment?

From Q-034 Sealed 10 Nov 2026 Resolves by 30 Jun 2027 Open

Our standing estimate

Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

  1. No: TD states an amount

    76% · likely · confidence not registered

    The documents read on 30 Jun 2027 show it did not happen in the window.

    F-0427 · Open

  2. TD states an amount

    17% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

    TD Bank Group states, in a document it publishes dated 15 Sep 2026 to 30 Jun 2027, an amount lent, underwritten, advised, deployed or committed against its C$150bn summit commitment (an amount TD itself ties to the C$150bn; the 22 Sep Cohere release, which says only that it builds on the commitment, does not count).

    F-0426 · Open

  3. Not settled: TD states an amount

    7% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

    The record read on 30 Jun 2027 does not settle whether it happened in the window (a document undated, unreadable, or not clearly tied to the line).

    F-0428 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (10 Nov 2026). TD pledged C$150bn; in the releases read to early November 2026, no bank states an amount against the C$322bn the four banks pledged in September.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

How the estimates moved: each point is a sealed register row; the figures are in the table that follows.050100%10 Nov 2026123
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.RowSealedEstimateStatus
1F-042710 Nov 202676%Open
2F-042610 Nov 202617%Open
3F-042810 Nov 20267%Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Regulation and compliance

  • Which summit pledges can be checked, and what governs the airports?

    Today C$0.14bn is checkable; TD states an amount against its C$150bn pledge by mid-2027 at 17%, our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves. Read it in the brief

Finance and markets

  • It is the brief's headline forecast, and TD's figure meeting the written test is one route past the C$88.34bn ceiling.

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

  • F-0426

    “Resolves if: TD Bank Group states, in a document it publishes dated 15 Sep 2026 to 30 Jun 2027, an amount lent, underwritten, advised, deployed or committed against its C$150bn summit commitment (an amount TD itself ties to the C$150bn; the 22 Sep Cohere release, which says only that it builds on the commitment, does not count).”

  • F-0427

    “Resolves if: The documents read on 2027-06-30 show that this did NOT happen in its window: TD Bank Group states, in a document it publishes dated 15 Sep 2026 to 30 Jun 2027, an amount lent, underwritten, advised, deployed or committed against its C$150bn summit commitment (an amount TD itself ties to the C$150bn; the 22 Sep Cohere release, which says only that it builds on the commitment, does not count).”

  • F-0428

    “Resolves if: The record read on 2027-06-30 does not settle whether this happened in its window (a document undated, unreadable, or not clearly tied to the line): TD Bank Group states, in a document it publishes dated 15 Sep 2026 to 30 Jun 2027, an amount lent, underwritten, advised, deployed or committed against its C$150bn summit commitment (an amount TD itself ties to the C$150bn; the 22 Sep Cohere release, which says only that it builds on the commitment, does not count).”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
  • F-0426 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 18a822ae4c7e987db370be72f272b354455be1609028e4aa32c741047836c475
  • F-0427 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 b33d3b47391de406f10c6f359ec5cacb44ce17e6f0aa4bcd015e0ae08d834e97
  • F-0428 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 bb1433f70118767958e49cadd25d14cad781db08282a4471fe3bb94503f1749e

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.