Key question KQ-75 · Finance and markets

On 30 Jun 2027, how much of the itemised summit total can be checked: Crown money alone (at most C$0.84bn), up to the C$88.34bn ceiling, or more; and has any of the four airports reached an enabling bill, a charge rule or a request for qualifications or proposals?

From Q-034 Sealed 10 Nov 2026 Resolves by 30 Jun 2027 Open

Our standing estimate

Six outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

A bank or large line reports (to 30 June 2027)

21.4% · unlikely · confidence not registered

The checkable sum on 30 Jun 2027 is above C$88.34bn (TD's or Scotiabank's figure, or several large lines together, meet the written test), at any airport stage.

F-0424 · Open
Documented lines report, no bill (to 30 June 2027)

20.6% · unlikely · confidence not registered

The checkable sum on 30 Jun 2027 is above C$0.84bn and at most C$88.34bn, and no enabling bill, charge rule or request for qualifications or proposals exists for any of the four airports.

F-0422 · Open
Crown money only, no bill (to 30 June 2027)

19.5% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

The checkable sum on 30 Jun 2027 is at most C$0.84bn (no line beyond BDC's and the Canada Growth Fund's is checkable), and no enabling bill, charge rule or request for qualifications or proposals exists for any of the four airports.

F-0420 · Open
Documented lines report, bill moves (to 30 June 2027)

18.2% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

The checkable sum on 30 Jun 2027 is above C$0.84bn and at most C$88.34bn, and for at least one of the four airports an enabling bill is introduced, or a charge rule is published, or a request for qualifications or proposals is issued.

F-0423 · Open
Crown money only, bill moves (to 30 June 2027)

17.3% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

The checkable sum on 30 Jun 2027 is at most C$0.84bn, and for at least one of the four airports an enabling bill is introduced, or a charge rule is published, or a request for qualifications or proposals is issued.

F-0421 · Open
All other outcomes (to 30 June 2027)

3% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

All other outcomes: the Crown publishes a revised itemisation or withdraws the C$480.84bn, so the count against the Prime Minister's Office's fourteen figures cannot be made, or a government document withdraws or pauses the airport concession programme; this outcome takes precedence over every named one.

F-0425 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (10 Nov 2026). Of the C$480.84bn itemised at the summit, only C$0.14bn can be checked against a dated document today, and the four airport concessions have no bill.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.

Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.	Row	Sealed	Estimate	Status
1	F-0424	10 Nov 2026	21.4%	Open
2	F-0422	10 Nov 2026	20.6%	Open
3	F-0420	10 Nov 2026	19.5%	Open
4	F-0423	10 Nov 2026	18.2%	Open
5	F-0421	10 Nov 2026	17.3%	Open
6	F-0425	10 Nov 2026	3%	Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Finance and markets

The five named outcomes are close: the likeliest, the checkable sum passing C$88.34bn on TD's or Scotiabank's figure or several large lines together, is 21.4%, and Crown money alone, with or without an airport step, is 36.8% together.

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

Canada

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

F-0420
“Resolves if: On 30 Jun 2027 the checkable sum is at most C$0.84bn (no line beyond BDC's and the Canada Growth Fund's is checkable) and no enabling bill, charge rule or request for qualifications or proposals exists for any of the four airports.”
F-0421
“Resolves if: On 30 Jun 2027 the checkable sum is at most C$0.84bn, and for at least one of the four airports an enabling bill is introduced, or a charge rule is published, or a request for qualifications or proposals is issued.”
F-0422
“Resolves if: On 30 Jun 2027 the checkable sum is above C$0.84bn and at most C$88.34bn, and no enabling bill, charge rule or request for qualifications or proposals exists for any of the four airports.”
F-0423
“Resolves if: On 30 Jun 2027 the checkable sum is above C$0.84bn and at most C$88.34bn, and for at least one of the four airports an enabling bill is introduced, or a charge rule is published, or a request for qualifications or proposals is issued.”
F-0424
“Resolves if: On 30 Jun 2027 the checkable sum is above C$88.34bn - TD's or Scotiabank's figure, or several large lines together, meet the written test - at any airport stage.”
F-0425
“Resolves if: All other outcomes: the Crown publishes a revised itemisation or withdraws the C$480.84bn so the count against the fourteen PMO figures cannot be made, or a government document withdraws or pauses the airport concession programme; this precedes every named world.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint

F-0420 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 1f93a1ad00ffdaebdb4afc641bcb5da3441962d5f8c673d1b9f87101112e9aa9
F-0421 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 fc8cacca28eea31dfc04e82a0951731e6c6528af1b8f1942e237ae6f9108b4fd
F-0422 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 b57e16e89cd79a2c20356586a28d1c941b2762f2039bbd7abac428c0af97777b
F-0423 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 e4122ca426e338022d8022c0dfe5c692d7ac3a644c01f474cb1e5675dc63af0d
F-0424 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 b06d33cf8a8d5d25623fab9afff58a967bfc2cd2f9a29e676d18149418fda668
F-0425 sealed 10 Nov 2026SHA-256 107f073b885872857d56a29063b0618d2319f3b74383c3f759d7d5849c8616f4

Go further

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.