Key question KQ-57 · Finance and markets

By 31 Dec 2027, does Ottawa's 2026-27 deficit come in above the $62.3 billion plan, and does its declining deficit-to-GDP anchor still hold?

From Q-032 Sealed 8 Nov 2026 Resolves by 31 Dec 2027 Open

Our standing estimate

Six outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

At or under plan, anchor holds (to 31 December 2027)

52.8% · roughly even chance · confidence not registered

The 2026-27 deficit is $62.3 billion or less, and on 31 Dec 2027 Finance's printed deficit-to-GDP ratio never rises from one year to the next and ends below 2026-27, with the anchor not replaced, dropped or redefined.

F-0298 · Open
Over plan, anchor still holds (to 31 December 2027)

14.8% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

The 2026-27 deficit is above $62.3 billion, yet on 31 Dec 2027 the printed ratio never rises from one year to the next and ends below 2026-27, with the anchor not replaced, dropped or redefined.

F-0299 · Open
At or under plan, anchor breaks (to 31 December 2027)

14% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

The 2026-27 deficit is $62.3 billion or less, yet on 31 Dec 2027 the printed ratio rises in at least one year or does not end below 2026-27, for example 1.7% for 2026-27 with 2027-28 left at 1.8%; the anchor is not replaced, dropped or redefined.

F-0301 · Open
Over plan, anchor breaks (to 31 December 2027)

9.9% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

The 2026-27 deficit is above $62.3 billion, and on 31 Dec 2027 the printed ratio rises in at least one year or does not end below 2026-27; the anchor is not replaced, dropped or redefined.

F-0300 · Open
Anchor replaced or redefined (to 31 December 2027)

6% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Between 5 Nov 2026 and 31 Dec 2027 a budget, fall statement or economic update replaces, drops or redefines the declining deficit-to-GDP anchor, whatever the deficit; the same words restated do not count.

F-0302 · Open
All other outcomes (to 31 December 2027)

2.5% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

Any other outcome on 31 Dec 2027: no 2026-27 figure in any of the three documents, no printed ratio path that can be read, or documents that do not settle either part.

F-0303 · Open

The 2026-27 deficit that counts is the Public Accounts figure if tabled by 31 Dec 2027; else the latest figure in a Finance plan published after Budget 2026 and by that date; else the March 2027 Fiscal Monitor's full-year figure, before year-end adjustments. A flat year at one decimal counts as not rising.

The situation when it was sealed (8 Nov 2026). Ottawa prints both 2026-27 and 2027-28 at 1.8% of GDP; before the budget, Parliament's budget watchdog projected larger deficits than the plan in every year.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.

Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.	Row	Sealed	Estimate	Status
1	F-0298	8 Nov 2026	52.8%	Open
2	F-0299	8 Nov 2026	14.8%	Open
3	F-0301	8 Nov 2026	14%	Open
4	F-0300	8 Nov 2026	9.9%	Open
5	F-0302	8 Nov 2026	6%	Open
6	F-0303	8 Nov 2026	2.5%	Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Finance and markets

Final deficits have landed up to $22 billion from their last projection, so the final 2026-27 figure, if tabled by 31 Dec 2027, can still change the answer.
What do the budget's numbers say about Ottawa's 2026-27 deficit and its anchor to the end of 2027?
More likely at or below plan. A 2026-27 deficit above plan by 31 December 2027, two scenarios together: 25%, our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves. Read it in the brief
Will the 2026-27 deficit come in above $62.3 billion?
Less likely than not: a deficit above the plan is 20% by 4 Nov 2027 and 25% by 31 Dec 2027, our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves. Read it in the brief
Does the falling deficit-to-GDP anchor still hold?
More likely than not: the anchor holding is 70% by 4 Nov 2027 and 68% by 31 Dec 2027, our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves. Read it in the brief
Do the odds favour a 2026-27 deficit at or below the $62.3 billion plan?
The firm puts a deficit above the plan at 20% by 4 November 2027 and 25% by 31 December 2027. Read it in the brief

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

Canada

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

F-0298
“Resolves if: On the 2026-27 deficit that counts on 31 Dec 2027: as first reported in the Annual Financial Report / Public Accounts of Canada 2026-27 if tabled by then; else the latest 2026-27 figure in an official Department of Finance fiscal plan published after Budget 2026 and by then (Budget 2027, a fall statement or an economic update); else the March 2027 Fiscal Monitor's full-year figure before year-end adjustments, it is $62.3 billion or less; AND on Finance's PRINTED one-decimal deficit-to-GDP ratios, taking the latest published figure for each fiscal year from 2026-27 to the final year of the latest official plan published by 31 Dec 2027 (Budget 2026 itself if none newer), the ratio never rises from one year to the next (a flat year at one decimal counts as not rising) and the final year is below 2026-27; AND no official Finance document between 5 Nov 2026 and 31 Dec 2027 has replaced, dropped or redefined the declining deficit-to-GDP anchor.”
F-0299
“Resolves if: On the 2026-27 deficit that counts on 31 Dec 2027: as first reported in the Annual Financial Report / Public Accounts of Canada 2026-27 if tabled by then; else the latest 2026-27 figure in an official Department of Finance fiscal plan published after Budget 2026 and by then (Budget 2027, a fall statement or an economic update); else the March 2027 Fiscal Monitor's full-year figure before year-end adjustments, it is above $62.3 billion; AND on Finance's PRINTED one-decimal deficit-to-GDP ratios, taking the latest published figure for each fiscal year from 2026-27 to the final year of the latest official plan published by 31 Dec 2027 (Budget 2026 itself if none newer), the ratio never rises from one year to the next (flat counts as not rising) and the final year is below 2026-27; AND no official Finance document between 5 Nov 2026 and 31 Dec 2027 has replaced, dropped or redefined the declining deficit-to-GDP anchor.”
F-0300
“Resolves if: On the 2026-27 deficit that counts on 31 Dec 2027: as first reported in the Annual Financial Report / Public Accounts of Canada 2026-27 if tabled by then; else the latest 2026-27 figure in an official Department of Finance fiscal plan published after Budget 2026 and by then (Budget 2027, a fall statement or an economic update); else the March 2027 Fiscal Monitor's full-year figure before year-end adjustments, it is above $62.3 billion; AND on Finance's PRINTED one-decimal deficit-to-GDP ratios, taking the latest published figure for each fiscal year from 2026-27 to the final year of the latest official plan published by 31 Dec 2027 (Budget 2026 itself if none newer), the ratio rises in at least one step from one year to the next, or the final year is not below 2026-27; AND no official Finance document between 5 Nov 2026 and 31 Dec 2027 has replaced, dropped or redefined the declining deficit-to-GDP anchor.”
F-0301
“Resolves if: On the 2026-27 deficit that counts on 31 Dec 2027: as first reported in the Annual Financial Report / Public Accounts of Canada 2026-27 if tabled by then; else the latest 2026-27 figure in an official Department of Finance fiscal plan published after Budget 2026 and by then (Budget 2027, a fall statement or an economic update); else the March 2027 Fiscal Monitor's full-year figure before year-end adjustments, it is $62.3 billion or less; AND on Finance's PRINTED one-decimal deficit-to-GDP ratios, taking the latest published figure for each fiscal year from 2026-27 to the final year of the latest official plan published by 31 Dec 2027 (Budget 2026 itself if none newer), the ratio rises in at least one step from one year to the next, or the final year is not below 2026-27 (for example a 2026-27 outturn printed at 1.7% with 2027-28 left at 1.8%); AND no official Finance document between 5 Nov 2026 and 31 Dec 2027 has replaced, dropped or redefined the declining deficit-to-GDP anchor.”
F-0302
“Resolves if: Between 5 Nov 2026 and 31 Dec 2027 an official Department of Finance document (a budget, a fall statement or an economic update) replaces, drops or redefines the declining deficit-to-GDP anchor set in Budget 2025 and restated in Budget 2026, whatever the 2026-27 deficit figure; a restatement in the same words is not a redefinition.”
F-0303
“Resolves if: Any outcome on 31 Dec 2027 not in the five named worlds: no 2026-27 figure under the order above (no Public Accounts, no new plan and no March 2027 Fiscal Monitor) with the anchor not replaced; or no printed deficit-to-GDP path that can be read (for example a plan that prints no ratio row); or documents that do not settle either part.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint

F-0298 sealed 8 Nov 2026SHA-256 06db4fa88a971c246dc49860c1e08c163464ff9f12fce940cd01057fe2c11c1d
F-0299 sealed 8 Nov 2026SHA-256 4a590f203c46543e94f01eebdd19837ec8bea4dafe86a902c85e449e6748e399
F-0300 sealed 8 Nov 2026SHA-256 77842e144e25fe8058a76d3a4e866658f72e993a7e5acf7507d204c28061d009
F-0301 sealed 8 Nov 2026SHA-256 3543e456dd9674e805711d3a282e469a6a32f0fcb57c6d37f17bd084c1bc1697
F-0302 sealed 8 Nov 2026SHA-256 1969f2b87a197e54e382919c8d73b4cc3ea5aa31df9a84743ecd6b035a328c8a
F-0303 sealed 8 Nov 2026SHA-256 1931e0ce247ca3e0501c50907345cc6314f098ef7ea73d15145fc61fc22a7860

Go further

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.