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Key question KQ-56 · Finance and markets

By 4 Nov 2027, does Ottawa's 2026-27 deficit come in above the $62.3 billion plan, and does its declining deficit-to-GDP anchor still hold?

From Q-032 Sealed 8 Nov 2026 Resolves by 4 Nov 2027 Open

Our standing estimate

Six outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

  1. At or under plan, anchor holds (to 4 November 2027)

    57.8% · likely · confidence not registered

    The 2026-27 deficit is $62.3 billion or less, and on 4 Nov 2027 Finance's printed deficit-to-GDP ratio never rises from one year to the next and ends below 2026-27, with the anchor not replaced, dropped or redefined.

    F-0292 · Open

  2. At or under plan, anchor breaks (to 4 November 2027)

    14.4% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

    The 2026-27 deficit is $62.3 billion or less, yet on 4 Nov 2027 the printed ratio rises in at least one year or does not end below 2026-27, for example 1.7% for 2026-27 with 2027-28 left at 1.8%; the anchor is not replaced, dropped or redefined.

    F-0295 · Open

  3. Over plan, anchor still holds (to 4 November 2027)

    12.3% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

    The 2026-27 deficit is above $62.3 billion, yet on 4 Nov 2027 the printed ratio never rises from one year to the next and ends below 2026-27, with the anchor not replaced, dropped or redefined.

    F-0293 · Open

  4. Over plan, anchor breaks (to 4 November 2027)

    7.5% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

    The 2026-27 deficit is above $62.3 billion, and on 4 Nov 2027 the printed ratio rises in at least one year or does not end below 2026-27; the anchor is not replaced, dropped or redefined.

    F-0294 · Open

  5. Anchor replaced or redefined (to 4 November 2027)

    5% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

    Between 5 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027 a budget, fall statement or economic update replaces, drops or redefines the declining deficit-to-GDP anchor, whatever the deficit; the same words restated do not count.

    F-0296 · Open

  6. All other outcomes (to 4 November 2027)

    3% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

    Any other outcome on 4 Nov 2027: no 2026-27 figure in any of the three documents, no printed ratio path that can be read, or documents that do not settle either part.

    F-0297 · Open

The 2026-27 deficit that counts is the Public Accounts figure if tabled by 4 Nov 2027; else the latest figure in a Finance plan published after Budget 2026 and by that date; else the March 2027 Fiscal Monitor's full-year figure, before year-end adjustments. A flat year at one decimal counts as not rising.

The situation when it was sealed (8 Nov 2026). Budget 2026 plans a $62.3 billion deficit for 2026-27; from April to August 2026 the deficit ran at about half its 2025 pace, as reported.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

How the estimates moved: each point is a sealed register row; the figures are in the table that follows.050100%8 Nov 2026123456
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.RowSealedEstimateStatus
1F-02928 Nov 202657.8%Open
2F-02958 Nov 202614.4%Open
3F-02938 Nov 202612.3%Open
4F-02948 Nov 20267.5%Open
5F-02968 Nov 20265%Open
6F-02978 Nov 20263%Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Finance and markets

  • The anchor has little room either way: by our calculation, about $3.2 billion more deficit in 2027-28 prints 1.9% and breaks it, and a 2026-27 deficit below about $60.0 billion can break it too.

  • Will the 2026-27 deficit come in above $62.3 billion?

    Less likely than not: a deficit above the plan is 20% by 4 Nov 2027 and 25% by 31 Dec 2027, our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves. Read it in the brief

  • Does the falling deficit-to-GDP anchor still hold?

    More likely than not: the anchor holding is 70% by 4 Nov 2027 and 68% by 31 Dec 2027, our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves. Read it in the brief

  • Do the odds favour a 2026-27 deficit at or below the $62.3 billion plan?

    The firm puts a deficit above the plan at 20% by 4 November 2027 and 25% by 31 December 2027. Read it in the brief

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

  • F-0292

    “Resolves if: On the 2026-27 deficit that counts on 4 Nov 2027: as first reported in the Annual Financial Report / Public Accounts of Canada 2026-27 if tabled by then; else the latest 2026-27 figure in an official Department of Finance fiscal plan published after Budget 2026 and by then (Budget 2027, a fall statement or an economic update); else the March 2027 Fiscal Monitor's full-year figure before year-end adjustments, it is $62.3 billion or less; AND on Finance's PRINTED one-decimal deficit-to-GDP ratios, taking the latest published figure for each fiscal year from 2026-27 to the final year of the latest official plan published by 4 Nov 2027 (Budget 2026 itself if none newer), the ratio never rises from one year to the next (a flat year at one decimal counts as not rising) and the final year is below 2026-27; AND no official Finance document between 5 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027 has replaced, dropped or redefined the declining deficit-to-GDP anchor.”

  • F-0293

    “Resolves if: On the 2026-27 deficit that counts on 4 Nov 2027: as first reported in the Annual Financial Report / Public Accounts of Canada 2026-27 if tabled by then; else the latest 2026-27 figure in an official Department of Finance fiscal plan published after Budget 2026 and by then (Budget 2027, a fall statement or an economic update); else the March 2027 Fiscal Monitor's full-year figure before year-end adjustments, it is above $62.3 billion; AND on Finance's PRINTED one-decimal deficit-to-GDP ratios, taking the latest published figure for each fiscal year from 2026-27 to the final year of the latest official plan published by 4 Nov 2027 (Budget 2026 itself if none newer), the ratio never rises from one year to the next (flat counts as not rising) and the final year is below 2026-27; AND no official Finance document between 5 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027 has replaced, dropped or redefined the declining deficit-to-GDP anchor.”

  • F-0294

    “Resolves if: On the 2026-27 deficit that counts on 4 Nov 2027: as first reported in the Annual Financial Report / Public Accounts of Canada 2026-27 if tabled by then; else the latest 2026-27 figure in an official Department of Finance fiscal plan published after Budget 2026 and by then (Budget 2027, a fall statement or an economic update); else the March 2027 Fiscal Monitor's full-year figure before year-end adjustments, it is above $62.3 billion; AND on Finance's PRINTED one-decimal deficit-to-GDP ratios, taking the latest published figure for each fiscal year from 2026-27 to the final year of the latest official plan published by 4 Nov 2027 (Budget 2026 itself if none newer), the ratio rises in at least one step from one year to the next, or the final year is not below 2026-27; AND no official Finance document between 5 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027 has replaced, dropped or redefined the declining deficit-to-GDP anchor.”

  • F-0295

    “Resolves if: On the 2026-27 deficit that counts on 4 Nov 2027: as first reported in the Annual Financial Report / Public Accounts of Canada 2026-27 if tabled by then; else the latest 2026-27 figure in an official Department of Finance fiscal plan published after Budget 2026 and by then (Budget 2027, a fall statement or an economic update); else the March 2027 Fiscal Monitor's full-year figure before year-end adjustments, it is $62.3 billion or less; AND on Finance's PRINTED one-decimal deficit-to-GDP ratios, taking the latest published figure for each fiscal year from 2026-27 to the final year of the latest official plan published by 4 Nov 2027 (Budget 2026 itself if none newer), the ratio rises in at least one step from one year to the next, or the final year is not below 2026-27 (for example a 2026-27 outturn printed at 1.7% with 2027-28 left at 1.8%); AND no official Finance document between 5 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027 has replaced, dropped or redefined the declining deficit-to-GDP anchor.”

  • F-0296

    “Resolves if: Between 5 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027 an official Department of Finance document (a budget, a fall statement or an economic update) replaces, drops or redefines the declining deficit-to-GDP anchor set in Budget 2025 and restated in Budget 2026, whatever the 2026-27 deficit figure; a restatement in the same words is not a redefinition.”

  • F-0297

    “Resolves if: Any outcome on 4 Nov 2027 not in the five named worlds: no 2026-27 figure under the order above (no Public Accounts, no new plan and no March 2027 Fiscal Monitor) with the anchor not replaced; or no printed deficit-to-GDP path that can be read (for example a plan that prints no ratio row); or documents that do not settle either part.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
  • F-0292 sealed 8 Nov 2026SHA-256 d46e1f43075fe7c980ae4f4d9714b79d73e9ad3199079385a764992b5c70fcd4
  • F-0293 sealed 8 Nov 2026SHA-256 772a217fe519da348764089aa75dc83c5bb4844327289d436176063a0971f1a9
  • F-0294 sealed 8 Nov 2026SHA-256 a5827ac15551074fec927bd23be08e90e3411ade021e3f836312bb0159ca5259
  • F-0295 sealed 8 Nov 2026SHA-256 d93e848e2dd36b0d2ae245d3568fda0df5e0429733047453d503d247ad106fe2
  • F-0296 sealed 8 Nov 2026SHA-256 2fc57aa65826576007e7313795848b33280fa42b829467ff13549dcde5971f3f
  • F-0297 sealed 8 Nov 2026SHA-256 803997f50b2cbee2255cc30b86fe3263a676f577ad00713f64fa477c6007fba6

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.