KQ-55: On the latest release published by 4 Nov 2027, do 2027's quarters run more than 1% above 2026, within 1% or more than 1% below, and is the Productivity Mega Deduction law by then?

Our standing estimate

Six outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

Early rise, deduction in law (to 4 November 2027)

28% · unlikely · confidence not registered

The 2027 quarters published by 4 Nov 2027 average more than 1% above 2026, and the bill implementing the deduction has royal assent by that date.

F-0352 · Open
Early fall (to 4 November 2027)

25% · unlikely · confidence not registered

The 2027 quarters published by 4 Nov 2027 average more than 1% below 2026, whether or not the deduction is law by then.

F-0356 · Open
Early flat, deduction in law (to 4 November 2027)

22.4% · unlikely · confidence not registered

The 2027 quarters published by 4 Nov 2027 average within 1% of 2026 either way, and the bill implementing the deduction has royal assent by that date.

F-0354 · Open
Early rise, deduction not yet law (to 4 November 2027)

12% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

The 2027 quarters published by 4 Nov 2027 average more than 1% above 2026, and no bill implementing the deduction has royal assent by that date.

F-0353 · Open
Early flat, deduction not yet law (to 4 November 2027)

11.6% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

The 2027 quarters published by 4 Nov 2027 average within 1% of 2026 either way, and no bill implementing the deduction has royal assent by that date.

F-0355 · Open
All other outcomes (to 4 November 2027)

1% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

No release published by 4 Nov 2027 carries a 2027 quarter, or the series is discontinued or redefined so 2027 and 2026 cannot be read on one release, whatever the deduction's status.

F-0357 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (7 Nov 2026). Permanent as proposed but not yet law, the deduction sets no 2027 deadline.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.

Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.	Row	Sealed	Estimate	Status
1	F-0352	7 Nov 2026	28%	Open
2	F-0356	7 Nov 2026	25%	Open
3	F-0354	7 Nov 2026	22.4%	Open
4	F-0353	7 Nov 2026	12%	Open
5	F-0355	7 Nov 2026	11.6%	Open
6	F-0357	7 Nov 2026	1%	Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Trade, tariffs and sanctions

For a Canadian CFO, financing capital brought forward costs more, while the deduction, not yet law, would cut its tax cost.

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

Canada

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

F-0352
“Resolves if: The average of the 2027 quarters of v62305735 (real business investment in non-residential structures, machinery and equipment), read in the latest release of Table 36-10-0104-01 published on or before 4 Nov 2027 (expected the 2027Q2 national accounts, about 27 Aug 2027 by the 2026 pattern - an inference), is more than 1.0% above the 2026 average in the same vintage, AND a bill implementing the Productivity Mega Deduction has royal assent on or before 4 Nov 2027.”
F-0353
“Resolves if: The average of the 2027 quarters of v62305735, read in the latest release of Table 36-10-0104-01 published on or before 4 Nov 2027 (expected the 2027Q2 national accounts, about 27 Aug 2027 by the 2026 pattern - an inference), is more than 1.0% above the 2026 average in the same vintage, AND no bill implementing the Productivity Mega Deduction has royal assent by 4 Nov 2027.”
F-0354
“Resolves if: The average of the 2027 quarters of v62305735, read in the latest release of Table 36-10-0104-01 published on or before 4 Nov 2027 (expected the 2027Q2 national accounts, about 27 Aug 2027 by the 2026 pattern - an inference), is within 1.0% either way of the 2026 average in the same vintage, AND a bill implementing the Productivity Mega Deduction has royal assent on or before 4 Nov 2027.”
F-0355
“Resolves if: The average of the 2027 quarters of v62305735, read in the latest release of Table 36-10-0104-01 published on or before 4 Nov 2027 (expected the 2027Q2 national accounts, about 27 Aug 2027 by the 2026 pattern - an inference), is within 1.0% either way of the 2026 average in the same vintage, AND no bill implementing the Productivity Mega Deduction has royal assent by 4 Nov 2027.”
F-0356
“Resolves if: The average of the 2027 quarters of v62305735, read in the latest release of Table 36-10-0104-01 published on or before 4 Nov 2027 (expected the 2027Q2 national accounts, about 27 Aug 2027 by the 2026 pattern - an inference), is more than 1.0% below the 2026 average in the same vintage, whether or not the deduction is law by 4 Nov 2027.”
F-0357
“Resolves if: No release published by 4 Nov 2027 carries a 2027 quarter of v62305735, or the series is discontinued or redefined so that 2027 and 2026 cannot be read on one vintage; whatever the deduction's status.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint

F-0352 sealed 7 Nov 2026SHA-256 9f694b1b9cab898ffb3f5dad0acb37b73aba52550c69c517b06eb9237702d9c5
F-0353 sealed 7 Nov 2026SHA-256 33afb9395a2bf96b4bfb21faa6d40afb3fcbe97b6a1ffc723223cdea7660bd14
F-0354 sealed 7 Nov 2026SHA-256 8c71e3793c5fcd9cad465f641e70462663bd13a24e3e50c7c30739fcddc4b451
F-0355 sealed 7 Nov 2026SHA-256 7fcc17131630a4f08d68048540cf67f52e1a3a4bb3b32014a5519e422af5974e
F-0356 sealed 7 Nov 2026SHA-256 f44864640fee285410856c7d1b307657bac7b5d839f01d7851475fc162164da7
F-0357 sealed 7 Nov 2026SHA-256 bb911d329a1c8865113ef40ff09db388d604f9fca5b2c99427abfba455a3463f

Go further

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.