Key question KQ-54 · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

On the first release carrying 2027's fourth quarter, read by 31 Mar 2028, does Canada's real business investment in structures and equipment rise more than 1% on 2026, stay within 1%, or fall more than 1%?

From Q-031 Sealed 7 Nov 2026 Resolves by 31 Mar 2028 Open

Our standing estimate

Five outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

Rise, equipment short of the test level (to 31 March 2028)

35.3% · unlikely · confidence not registered

2027 runs more than 1% above 2026, but machinery and equipment does not reach 3.46% of GDP in four quarters in a row between the third quarter of 2026 and the end of 2027.

F-0359 · Open
Flat year (to 31 March 2028)

31% · unlikely · confidence not registered

2027 stays within 1% of 2026, either way, whatever the equipment share does.

F-0360 · Open
Fall (to 31 March 2028)

25% · unlikely · confidence not registered

2027 falls more than 1% below 2026, whatever the equipment share does.

F-0361 · Open
Rise, equipment reaches the test level (to 31 March 2028)

6.7% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

2027 runs more than 1% above 2026, and machinery and equipment is at or above 3.46% of GDP in four quarters in a row between the third quarter of 2026 and the end of 2027.

F-0358 · Open
All other outcomes (to 31 March 2028)

2% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

No release published by 31 Mar 2028 lets 2027 be read against 2026: the series is discontinued or redefined, or no 2027 quarter of it is published.

F-0362 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (7 Nov 2026). Real business spending on structures and equipment has barely moved since 2023: down 1.4% in 2024 and up 0.2% in 2025.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.

Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.	Row	Sealed	Estimate	Status
1	F-0359	7 Nov 2026	35.3%	Open
2	F-0360	7 Nov 2026	31%	Open
3	F-0361	7 Nov 2026	25%	Open
4	F-0358	7 Nov 2026	6.7%	Open
5	F-0362	7 Nov 2026	2%	Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Trade, tariffs and sanctions

For a Canadian CFO the official path is a projection to test: the central bank projects business investment growing about 4% a year on average in 2027 and 2028.

Finance and markets

Will Canadian business investment rise in 2027?
A 2027 rise in business investment, its two scenarios together, is 42% by 31 March 2028, a flat year 31%, our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves. Read it in the brief
Is a 2027 rise above 1% the likeliest outcome, and is it more likely than not?
On the first release carrying 2027's fourth quarter, expected about 28 February 2028, the firm puts a rise at 42% and a flat year at 31%. Read it in the brief

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

Canada

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

F-0358
“Resolves if: The calendar-2027 annual average of v62305735, read in the first release carrying 2027Q4 (expected about 28 Feb 2028 by the 2026 pattern; the latest vintage on 31 Mar 2028 if none is out), is more than 1.0% above the 2026 average in the same vintage (RISE), AND machinery and equipment (v62305768) is at or above 3.46% of nominal GDP (v62305783) in each of four consecutive quarters between 2026Q3 and 2027Q4 in that vintage.”
F-0359
“Resolves if: The calendar-2027 annual average of v62305735, read in the first release carrying 2027Q4 (expected about 28 Feb 2028 by the 2026 pattern; the latest vintage on 31 Mar 2028 if none is out), is more than 1.0% above the 2026 average in the same vintage (RISE), AND machinery and equipment does NOT reach 3.46% of nominal GDP in four consecutive quarters between 2026Q3 and 2027Q4.”
F-0360
“Resolves if: The calendar-2027 annual average of v62305735, read in the first release carrying 2027Q4 (expected about 28 Feb 2028 by the 2026 pattern; the latest vintage on 31 Mar 2028 if none is out), is within 1.0% either way of the 2026 average in the same vintage (FLAT), whatever the equipment share does.”
F-0361
“Resolves if: The calendar-2027 annual average of v62305735, read in the first release carrying 2027Q4 (expected about 28 Feb 2028 by the 2026 pattern; the latest vintage on 31 Mar 2028 if none is out), is more than 1.0% below the 2026 average in the same vintage (FALL), whatever the equipment share does.”
F-0362
“Resolves if: No vintage published by 31 Mar 2028 lets the criterion be read on its own terms or on the commission's fallback: v62305735 is discontinued or redefined, or no 2027 quarter of it is published.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint

F-0358 sealed 7 Nov 2026SHA-256 655697d4ffb7b94524a58074c6b78fbcdbe14fe0aed8ea54765a342d0bb5a20f
F-0359 sealed 7 Nov 2026SHA-256 7d050a822c6f127b3636f7b0102234cbfc5e0ee46d5a8463838b59b17b595206
F-0360 sealed 7 Nov 2026SHA-256 09bde0ec8e28243c0af194d9c299d827a5aec4b0bb72a0400363ac7a25ef69d2
F-0361 sealed 7 Nov 2026SHA-256 e383783e223170a45c5a2179722a7dfb95f966f7a9a81929909ce82248414b94
F-0362 sealed 7 Nov 2026SHA-256 18b7069843c51433cdde23b80abddff9c9597983dfd1325cd907928cb51b715a

Go further

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.