Between 5 Nov 2026 and noon EST on 3 Jan 2027, does the US make a new military strike on Iranian territory, acknowledged or reported to Congress?
From Q-030Sealed 6 Nov 2026Resolves by 3 Jan 2027Open
Our standing estimate
Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
1
No: US strike on Iran by 3 Jan
79% · likely · confidence not registered
The documents published by 31 Jan 2027 show it did not happen in the window.
F-0311 · Open
2
US strike on Iran by 3 Jan
17% · very unlikely · confidence not registered
At least one new US strike on Iranian territory in the window, acknowledged by the White House or the Pentagon or reported to Congress under the War Powers Resolution.
F-0310 · Open
3
Not settled: US strike on Iran by 3 Jan
4% · almost no chance · confidence not registered
The record published by 31 Jan 2027 does not settle whether it happened.
F-0312 · Open
The situation when it was sealed (6 Nov 2026). Until noon on 3 January 2027, force against Iran needs no vote in Congress.
How it moved
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.
Row
Sealed
Estimate
Status
1
F-0311
6 Nov 2026
79%
Open
2
F-0310
6 Nov 2026
17%
Open
3
F-0312
6 Nov 2026
4%
Open
Reassessments
No reassessment yet.
Signposts
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
Why it matters, by category
Geopolitics and conflict
A new strike on Iran is one of the three acts that count as him acting alone in the brief's scenarios, with a pre-emptive pardon and a new national emergency.
Will he strike Iran again or make a deal now the vote is over?
The firm puts a strike on Iranian territory by 3 January at 17%: our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves. Read it in the brief
Countries it touches
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0310
“Resolves if: At least one new US military strike on Iranian territory, dated 5 Nov 2026 to noon EST 3 Jan 2027, acknowledged by the White House or the Pentagon or reported to Congress under WPR s.4.”
F-0311
“Resolves if: The documents published by 2027-01-31 show that this did NOT happen in its window: At least one new US military strike on Iranian territory, dated 5 Nov 2026 to noon EST 3 Jan 2027, acknowledged by the White House or the Pentagon or reported to Congress under WPR s.4.”
F-0312
“Resolves if: The record published by 2027-01-31 does not settle whether this happened in its window: At least one new US military strike on Iranian territory, dated 5 Nov 2026 to noon EST 3 Jan 2027, acknowledged by the White House or the Pentagon or reported to Congress under WPR s.4.”
The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
F-0310 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 f0dc5f91d07611e47dbe6138c188dc1308b803648acdad729de1b6badd5d2b04
F-0311 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 d5e549063675c82481b869910c54bf4ba32020f593f08b1c29a004c84c1bdc22
F-0312 sealed 6 Nov 2026SHA-256 ebb8d1cd8d678d444c2effb48fdc81cd368af10b2b7c160821473eaa3f4463e1
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.