Between noon on 3 Jan 2027 and noon on 20 Jan 2029, does he pardon a current or former official of his administration for conduct with no conviction at the date of the grant?
From Q-033Sealed 9 Nov 2026Resolves by 20 Jan 2029Open
Our standing estimate
Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
1
Pre-emptive pardon of an official
75% · likely · confidence not registered
At least one pardon dated in the window is granted to a current or former official of his administration for conduct with no conviction at the date of the grant.
F-0417 · Open
2
No: Pre-emptive pardon of an official
21% · unlikely · confidence not registered
The documents published by 20 Feb 2029 show it did not happen in the window.
F-0418 · Open
3
Not settled: Pre-emptive pardon of an official
4% · almost no chance · confidence not registered
The record published by 20 Feb 2029 does not settle whether it happened.
F-0419 · Open
The situation when it was sealed (9 Nov 2026). In his first term, 116 of his 144 pardons, 80.6%, are dated after election day 2020, and 2028 reopens that window.
How it moved
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.
Row
Sealed
Estimate
Status
1
F-0417
9 Nov 2026
75%
Open
2
F-0418
9 Nov 2026
21%
Open
3
F-0419
9 Nov 2026
4%
Open
Reassessments
No reassessment yet.
Signposts
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
Why it matters, by category
Regulation and compliance
Pardons need no congressional vote through 20 January 2029, so this is his call alone to the end of his term.
Countries it touches
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0417
“Resolves if: At least one pardon dated between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029 is granted to a current or former official of his administration for conduct with no conviction at the date of the grant.”
F-0418
“Resolves if: The documents published by 2029-02-20 show that this did NOT happen in its window: At least one pardon dated between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029 is granted to a current or former official of his administration for conduct with no conviction at the date of the grant.”
F-0419
“Resolves if: The record published by 2029-02-20 does not settle whether this happened in its window: At least one pardon dated between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029 is granted to a current or former official of his administration for conduct with no conviction at the date of the grant.”
The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
F-0417 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 1485ac403290c03fbf1ffe06652896d387a85ab0be292a7545955b9d1a3e604e
F-0418 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 afe3fa01cece6b9c7f9f4c170a7a87be8a211a779d162fb3e756bf9a2991159a
F-0419 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 f4b5bf3043ca52db168d75761cc844a34f65137b65e8dddd05b36773d18361df
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.