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Key question KQ-73 · Regulation and compliance

Between noon on 3 Jan 2027 and noon on 20 Jan 2029, does the President remove a sitting Federal Reserve governor who, on 20 Jan 2029, is still out of the seat because of the removal?

From Q-033 Sealed 9 Nov 2026 Resolves by 20 Jan 2029 Open

Our standing estimate

Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

  1. No: A Fed governor removed and stays removed

    89% · very likely · confidence not registered

    The documents published by 20 Feb 2029 show it did not happen in the window.

    F-0415 · Open

  2. A Fed governor removed and stays removed

    8% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

    The President removes a sitting member of the Federal Reserve Board in the window, and on 20 Jan 2029 that person is not a governor because of the removal, with no court order restoring the seat in force.

    F-0414 · Open

  3. Not settled: A Fed governor removed and stays removed

    3% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

    The record published by 20 Feb 2029 does not settle whether it happened.

    F-0416 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (9 Nov 2026). On 29 June the Supreme Court struck the FTC's protection against removal, yet the same day it kept Fed governors removable only for cause.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

How the estimates moved: each point is a sealed register row; the figures are in the table that follows.050100%9 Nov 2026123
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.RowSealedEstimateStatus
1F-04159 Nov 202689%Open
2F-04149 Nov 20268%Open
3F-04169 Nov 20263%Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Regulation and compliance

  • The Court kept a Fed governor in office 5-4; a removal that still stands on 20 Jan 2029 would mean that protection gave way within the President's term.

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

  • F-0414

    “Resolves if: The President removes a sitting member of the Federal Reserve Board between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029, and on 20 Jan 2029 that person is not a governor because of the removal (no court order restoring the seat in force).”

  • F-0415

    “Resolves if: The documents published by 2029-02-20 show that this did NOT happen in its window: The President removes a sitting member of the Federal Reserve Board between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029, and on 20 Jan 2029 that person is not a governor because of the removal (no court order restoring the seat in force).”

  • F-0416

    “Resolves if: The record published by 2029-02-20 does not settle whether this happened in its window: The President removes a sitting member of the Federal Reserve Board between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029, and on 20 Jan 2029 that person is not a governor because of the removal (no court order restoring the seat in force).”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
  • F-0414 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 4e523e622f1fc5d386e2290ed458ae8c5a4346671b08695df1eca2aef0b4d737
  • F-0415 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 7a86ea78ed5e0e9f8389a25636bc165556b984365939b420e0928cec051504eb
  • F-0416 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 69c4b0200146b1ce0e6517c96a45ace95fd67d899dd09ffda17846e1eecca72f

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.