Between noon on 3 Jan 2027 and noon on 20 Jan 2029, is a justice of the Supreme Court confirmed by the Senate and appointed?
From Q-033Sealed 9 Nov 2026Resolves by 20 Jan 2029Open
Our standing estimate
Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
1
No: A Supreme Court seat is filled
94% · very likely · confidence not registered
The documents published by 20 Feb 2029 show it did not happen in the window.
F-0409 · Open
2
A Supreme Court seat is filled
5% · very unlikely · confidence not registered
A justice of the Supreme Court is confirmed by the Senate and appointed in the window; this needs a vacancy first, and none is on file.
F-0408 · Open
3
Not settled: A Supreme Court seat is filled
1% · almost no chance · confidence not registered
The record published by 20 Feb 2029 does not settle whether it happened.
F-0410 · Open
The situation when it was sealed (9 Nov 2026). From 3 January the new Senate majority decides every judge the President nominates, with 43 court seats open or opening.
How it moved
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.
Row
Sealed
Estimate
Status
1
F-0409
9 Nov 2026
94%
Open
2
F-0408
9 Nov 2026
5%
Open
3
F-0410
9 Nov 2026
1%
Open
Reassessments
No reassessment yet.
Signposts
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
Why it matters, by category
Regulation and compliance
A seat can be filled only after a vacancy, and none is on file; any nominee would need the new Senate majority's votes.
Countries it touches
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0408
“Resolves if: A justice of the Supreme Court is confirmed by the Senate and appointed between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029 (this needs a vacancy first; none is on file).”
F-0409
“Resolves if: The documents published by 2029-02-20 show that this did NOT happen in its window: A justice of the Supreme Court is confirmed by the Senate and appointed between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029 (this needs a vacancy first; none is on file).”
F-0410
“Resolves if: The record published by 2029-02-20 does not settle whether this happened in its window: A justice of the Supreme Court is confirmed by the Senate and appointed between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029 (this needs a vacancy first; none is on file).”
The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
F-0408 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 8034ff4f5e25d7b29fc02fe38bd81a513559a5c7ccf8a855bce70cd432aad725
F-0409 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 18c5786b02ccb3c74b5ad5f0599357f9e2491df115d7f8ba30ca113aba2fa63f
F-0410 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 14c0ff4c59efe39d3a0bb1ab362e123f9d8986d82fc1975cc537087ff44b7083
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.