KQ-70: Between noon on 3 Jan 2027 and 7 Nov 2027, does the House adopt a resolution finding a current or former executive-branch official in contempt of Congress?

Our standing estimate

Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

House votes an official in contempt by 7 Nov 2027

55% · likely · confidence not registered

The House adopts a resolution in the window finding a current or former executive-branch official in contempt of Congress (certified under 2 U.S.C. 194, or civil or inherent contempt).

F-0405 · Open
No: House votes an official in contempt by 7 Nov 2027

43% · unlikely · confidence not registered

The documents published by 7 Dec 2027 show it did not happen in the window.

F-0406 · Open
Not settled: House votes an official in contempt by 7 Nov 2027

2% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

The record published by 7 Dec 2027 does not settle whether it happened.

F-0407 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (9 Nov 2026). From 3 January the House majority can investigate, subpoena and impeach by a simple majority, and House chairs promise probes.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.

Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.	Row	Sealed	Estimate	Status
1	F-0405	9 Nov 2026	55%	Open
2	F-0406	9 Nov 2026	43%	Open
3	F-0407	9 Nov 2026	2%	Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Regulation and compliance

It is the brief's dated test, within a year, of how far the new House majority presses its oversight of officials.
What do House chairs promise, and what does conviction need in the Senate?
The firm puts a contempt vote against an official by 7 November 2027 at 55%, and articles against the President or any executive officer by noon 20 January 2029 at 50% Read it in the brief

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

United States

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

F-0405
“Resolves if: The House adopts a resolution finding a current or former executive-branch official in contempt of Congress (certified under 2 U.S.C. 194, or civil or inherent contempt) between noon 3 Jan 2027 and 7 Nov 2027.”
F-0406
“Resolves if: The documents published by 2027-12-07 show that this did NOT happen in its window: The House adopts a resolution finding a current or former executive-branch official in contempt of Congress (certified under 2 U.S.C. 194, or civil or inherent contempt) between noon 3 Jan 2027 and 7 Nov 2027.”
F-0407
“Resolves if: The record published by 2027-12-07 does not settle whether this happened in its window: The House adopts a resolution finding a current or former executive-branch official in contempt of Congress (certified under 2 U.S.C. 194, or civil or inherent contempt) between noon 3 Jan 2027 and 7 Nov 2027.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint

F-0405 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 bbaa9bdfae0d02bad6ed089b4d87ac7f385cfe0ae9f0dc4b43ab2f1a79570f35
F-0406 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 191bf4f59ba2c095e45f418b4caa6ee500e40dc84f4508cccfdf4d3b6abe503e
F-0407 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 3d1252337a9274550b45dab496eb4c10f8ab673d999b2e7f1fec6d34a9cc58af

Go further

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.