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Key question KQ-69 · Geopolitics and conflict

Between noon on 3 Jan 2027 and noon on 20 Jan 2029, does the House adopt, on a recorded vote, at least one article of impeachment against the President, the Vice President or a civil officer of the executive branch?

From Q-033 Sealed 9 Nov 2026 Resolves by 20 Jan 2029 Open

Our standing estimate

Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

  1. House adopts articles against the President or an officer

    50% · roughly even chance · confidence not registered

    The House adopts, on a recorded vote, at least one article of impeachment against the President, the Vice President or a civil officer of the executive branch (a cabinet member included; judges excluded) in the window.

    F-0402 · Open

  2. No: House adopts articles against the President or an officer

    49% · roughly even chance · confidence not registered

    The documents published by 20 Feb 2029 show it did not happen in the window.

    F-0403 · Open

  3. Not settled: House adopts articles against the President or an officer

    1% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

    The record published by 20 Feb 2029 does not settle whether it happened.

    F-0404 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (9 Nov 2026). House chairs promise probes, but conviction needs two thirds of senators present.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

How the estimates moved: each point is a sealed register row; the figures are in the table that follows.050100%9 Nov 2026123
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.RowSealedEstimateStatus
1F-04029 Nov 202650%Open
2F-04039 Nov 202649%Open
3F-04049 Nov 20261%Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Geopolitics and conflict

  • It is the wider test of the House's power to impeach: any executive officer, a cabinet member included, to the end of his term.

Regulation and compliance

  • What do House chairs promise, and what does conviction need in the Senate?

    The firm puts a contempt vote against an official by 7 November 2027 at 55%, and articles against the President or any executive officer by noon 20 January 2029 at 50% Read it in the brief

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

  • F-0402

    “Resolves if: The House adopts, on a recorded vote, at least one article of impeachment against the President, the Vice President or a civil officer of the executive branch (a cabinet member included; judges excluded) between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029.”

  • F-0403

    “Resolves if: The documents published by 2029-02-20 show that this did NOT happen in its window: The House adopts, on a recorded vote, at least one article of impeachment against the President, the Vice President or a civil officer of the executive branch (a cabinet member included; judges excluded) between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029.”

  • F-0404

    “Resolves if: The record published by 2029-02-20 does not settle whether this happened in its window: The House adopts, on a recorded vote, at least one article of impeachment against the President, the Vice President or a civil officer of the executive branch (a cabinet member included; judges excluded) between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
  • F-0402 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 7dc96988d374ce9150eab47accf11b348ba7ea82f4ecde767ef0ed1099b72f05
  • F-0403 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 0b7d33df2ea3ea4ad5bd0a644ab507bac46a733aa444c684e90f1278c4b689eb
  • F-0404 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 da4edf0e88ff9edc3f0d1f374bbe896439bc3b86fc6df123a9336a49578739cb

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.