KQ-68: Between noon on 3 Jan 2027 and 7 Nov 2027, does the House adopt, on a recorded vote, at least one article of impeachment against the President?

Our standing estimate

Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

No: House adopts articles against the President by 7 Nov 2027

74% · likely · confidence not registered

The documents published by 7 Dec 2027 show it did not happen in the window.

F-0400 · Open
House adopts articles against the President by 7 Nov 2027

25% · unlikely · confidence not registered

The House adopts, on a recorded vote, at least one article of impeachment against the President in the window.

F-0399 · Open
Not settled: House adopts articles against the President by 7 Nov 2027

1% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

The record published by 7 Dec 2027 does not settle whether it happened.

F-0401 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (9 Nov 2026). From 3 January the House majority can investigate, subpoena and impeach by a simple majority, but removal needs the Senate.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.

Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.	Row	Sealed	Estimate	Status
1	F-0400	9 Nov 2026	74%	Open
2	F-0399	9 Nov 2026	25%	Open
3	F-0401	9 Nov 2026	1%	Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Geopolitics and conflict

Adopted articles are one of three acts that count as open confrontation in the brief's outcomes to 2029; conviction would still need two thirds of senators present.

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

United States

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

F-0399
“Resolves if: The House adopts, on a recorded vote, at least one article of impeachment against the President between noon 3 Jan 2027 and 7 Nov 2027.”
F-0400
“Resolves if: The documents published by 2027-12-07 show that this did NOT happen in its window: The House adopts, on a recorded vote, at least one article of impeachment against the President between noon 3 Jan 2027 and 7 Nov 2027.”
F-0401
“Resolves if: The record published by 2027-12-07 does not settle whether this happened in its window: The House adopts, on a recorded vote, at least one article of impeachment against the President between noon 3 Jan 2027 and 7 Nov 2027.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint

F-0399 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 563d581e021282629e864db2279b55a0c17a30894e5095e3fbce390a4d8f4280
F-0400 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 56e397522d5a114a326f1ec86e80d010a1eb0455ffc3656fcbe95b9fed07ec38
F-0401 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 dcc2aeea9518516e17b37a873e649cfdcb5f77871c54fd929877523f0fd79ad0

Go further

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.