Between noon on 3 Jan 2027 and noon on 20 Jan 2029, is a proclamation under 10 U.S.C. 254, the step that invokes the Insurrection Act, signed and published in the Federal Register?
From Q-033Sealed 9 Nov 2026Resolves by 20 Jan 2029Open
Our standing estimate
Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
1
No: Insurrection Act invoked
82% · very likely · confidence not registered
The documents published by 20 Feb 2029 show it did not happen in the window.
F-0397 · Open
2
Insurrection Act invoked
15% · very unlikely · confidence not registered
A proclamation under 10 U.S.C. 254 ordering insurgents to disperse is signed in the window and published in the Federal Register.
F-0396 · Open
3
Not settled: Insurrection Act invoked
3% · almost no chance · confidence not registered
The record published by 20 Feb 2029 does not settle whether it happened.
F-0398 · Open
The situation when it was sealed (9 Nov 2026). The Insurrection Act is invoked by a presidential proclamation under 10 U.S.C. 254 ordering insurgents to disperse.
How it moved
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.
Row
Sealed
Estimate
Status
1
F-0397
9 Nov 2026
82%
Open
2
F-0396
9 Nov 2026
15%
Open
3
F-0398
9 Nov 2026
3%
Open
Reassessments
No reassessment yet.
Signposts
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
Why it matters, by category
Geopolitics and conflict
Invoking it is one of three acts that count as open confrontation in the brief's outcomes to 2029, with House articles against him and a funding lapse.
Countries it touches
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0396
“Resolves if: A proclamation under 10 U.S.C. 254 ordering insurgents to disperse - the step that invokes the Insurrection Act - is signed between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029 and published in the Federal Register.”
F-0397
“Resolves if: The documents published by 2029-02-20 show that this did NOT happen in its window: A proclamation under 10 U.S.C. 254 ordering insurgents to disperse - the step that invokes the Insurrection Act - is signed between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029 and published in the Federal Register.”
F-0398
“Resolves if: The record published by 2029-02-20 does not settle whether this happened in its window: A proclamation under 10 U.S.C. 254 ordering insurgents to disperse - the step that invokes the Insurrection Act - is signed between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029 and published in the Federal Register.”
The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
F-0396 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 16df66ee3dfdb3f779a91d242818598906dca37ee5c4c2a9c11b50918877cb83
F-0397 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 fed45d7c3003020011cdd3d8ae1e44ea117cbf18d1b0540fb08d4786adec7b09
F-0398 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 766f28e7b6810de1fb9666be82eafc8edea2a6ee3b45dd748b72f72ff61ff680
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.