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Key question KQ-65 · Regulation and compliance

Between noon on 3 Jan 2027 and noon on 20 Jan 2029, is a joint resolution ending a national emergency under section 202(a)(1) of the National Emergencies Act enacted, signed or passed over a veto?

From Q-033 Sealed 9 Nov 2026 Resolves by 20 Jan 2029 Open

Our standing estimate

Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

  1. No: A joint resolution ends a national emergency

    90% · very likely · confidence not registered

    The documents published by 20 Feb 2029 show it did not happen in the window.

    F-0391 · Open

  2. A joint resolution ends a national emergency

    8% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

    A joint resolution terminating a national emergency under section 202(a)(1) of the National Emergencies Act is enacted in the window, signed or passed over a veto.

    F-0390 · Open

  3. Not settled: A joint resolution ends a national emergency

    2% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

    The record published by 20 Feb 2029 does not settle whether it happened.

    F-0392 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (9 Nov 2026). Congress can end a national emergency by a joint resolution under the National Emergencies Act, but it must be signed by him or passed over his veto.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

How the estimates moved: each point is a sealed register row; the figures are in the table that follows.050100%9 Nov 2026123
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.RowSealedEstimateStatus
1F-03919 Nov 202690%Open
2F-03909 Nov 20268%Open
3F-03929 Nov 20262%Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Regulation and compliance

  • His orders need no congressional vote through 20 January 2029; for Congress to end an emergency he has declared takes a law of this kind.

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

  • F-0390

    “Resolves if: A joint resolution terminating a national emergency under National Emergencies Act s.202(a)(1) is enacted (signed or passed over a veto) between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029.”

  • F-0391

    “Resolves if: The documents published by 2029-02-20 show that this did NOT happen in its window: A joint resolution terminating a national emergency under National Emergencies Act s.202(a)(1) is enacted (signed or passed over a veto) between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029.”

  • F-0392

    “Resolves if: The record published by 2029-02-20 does not settle whether this happened in its window: A joint resolution terminating a national emergency under National Emergencies Act s.202(a)(1) is enacted (signed or passed over a veto) between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
  • F-0390 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 ff75fde3309b9115449ef8bb5553937ebb1e893e7b6dc646abeeda0f3ea8a515
  • F-0391 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 398323eb4a95cacfd006f623009940296f23de2292b313c9429a5a0367481b63
  • F-0392 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 327c20d9825618f960aaa84121fdcb3b1d4909e43b7fe6a5de4dee561ee49f9a

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.