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Key question KQ-64 · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

Between noon on 3 Jan 2027 and noon on 20 Jan 2029, does a law, signed or passed over a veto, end, cut or make subject to congressional approval a tariff programme in force on 4 Nov 2026 under Section 232, 301 or 338?

From Q-033 Sealed 9 Nov 2026 Resolves by 20 Jan 2029 Open

Our standing estimate

Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

  1. No: A law ends or cuts a tariff programme

    77% · likely · confidence not registered

    The documents published by 20 Feb 2029 show it did not happen in the window.

    F-0388 · Open

  2. A law ends or cuts a tariff programme

    20% · unlikely · confidence not registered

    An Act of Congress or joint resolution enacted in the window, signed or passed over a veto, ends, cuts or makes subject to congressional approval a tariff programme in force on 4 Nov 2026 (Section 232, 301 or 338).

    F-0387 · Open

  3. Not settled: A law ends or cuts a tariff programme

    3% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

    The record published by 20 Feb 2029 does not settle whether it happened.

    F-0389 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (9 Nov 2026). The Supreme Court struck his emergency-law tariffs 6-3, but tariffs under Sections 232, 301 and 338 still need no congressional vote.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

How the estimates moved: each point is a sealed register row; the figures are in the table that follows.050100%9 Nov 2026123
The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.RowSealedEstimateStatus
1F-03889 Nov 202677%Open
2F-03879 Nov 202620%Open
3F-03899 Nov 20263%Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Trade, tariffs and sanctions

  • His tariffs need no congressional vote through 20 January 2029; this asks whether Congress ends or cuts one by law instead.

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

  • F-0387

    “Resolves if: An Act of Congress or joint resolution enacted between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029, signed or passed over a veto, ends, cuts or makes subject to congressional approval a tariff programme in force on 4 Nov 2026 (Section 232, 301 or 338).”

  • F-0388

    “Resolves if: The documents published by 2029-02-20 show that this did NOT happen in its window: An Act of Congress or joint resolution enacted between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029, signed or passed over a veto, ends, cuts or makes subject to congressional approval a tariff programme in force on 4 Nov 2026 (Section 232, 301 or 338).”

  • F-0389

    “Resolves if: The record published by 2029-02-20 does not settle whether this happened in its window: An Act of Congress or joint resolution enacted between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029, signed or passed over a veto, ends, cuts or makes subject to congressional approval a tariff programme in force on 4 Nov 2026 (Section 232, 301 or 338).”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
  • F-0387 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 8b4ee15a908964c9289ad75c9f6f373df4f28d2924991795eda1460aa68fb8ad
  • F-0388 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 fb2706cfe3d09257b16fbbb06904cc1368ba879ad8c0234e2df0867257eb1a96
  • F-0389 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 2cabca4959b1f3eb8eaa8259836b6dd3b606ac747aeca2e1249bfa9705a0ece0

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.