KQ-63: Between noon on 3 Jan 2027 and noon on 20 Jan 2029, do both chambers vote by two-thirds to override at least one presidential veto, so the bill becomes law?

Our standing estimate

Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

Any veto overridden by 20 Jan 2029

50% · roughly even chance · confidence not registered

Both chambers vote by two-thirds to override at least one presidential veto in the window, so the bill becomes law.

F-0384 · Open
No: Any veto overridden by 20 Jan 2029

49% · roughly even chance · confidence not registered

The documents published by 20 Feb 2029 show it did not happen in the window.

F-0385 · Open
Not settled: Any veto overridden by 20 Jan 2029

1% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

The record published by 20 Feb 2029 does not settle whether it happened.

F-0386 · Open

An earlier brief of ours asks the same between 3 Jan 2027 and 13 Apr 2027; that forecast is scored separately.

The situation when it was sealed (9 Nov 2026). A veto falls only to two thirds of each chamber: at most 67 senators and 290 members, with every seat filled and voting.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

The vertical line is 11 Nov 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.

Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.	Row	Sealed	Estimate	Status
1	F-0384	9 Nov 2026	50%	Open
2	F-0385	9 Nov 2026	49%	Open
3	F-0386	9 Nov 2026	1%	Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Geopolitics and conflict

With Democrats 11 to 13 senators short of an override, a law over his veto needs Republican votes; a law limiting his powers passed over his veto is its own outcome in the brief's scenarios to 2029.

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

United States

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

F-0384
“Resolves if: Both chambers vote by two-thirds to override at least one presidential veto between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029, so the bill becomes law.”
F-0385
“Resolves if: The documents published by 2029-02-20 show that this did NOT happen in its window: Both chambers vote by two-thirds to override at least one presidential veto between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029, so the bill becomes law.”
F-0386
“Resolves if: The record published by 2029-02-20 does not settle whether this happened in its window: Both chambers vote by two-thirds to override at least one presidential veto between noon 3 Jan 2027 and noon 20 Jan 2029, so the bill becomes law.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint

F-0384 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 38b903864f3eba1ef0cc2b6a8696450c491fb9e7940f04a5281ab2af39b1d401
F-0385 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 2639c26fcbfb56a5d7866c97436abea3db6df2c71e4964c3df55f3509c990f4e
F-0386 sealed 9 Nov 2026SHA-256 b9e90c6921ff2cbdf082e081a0aacf765315801e3e0337972d17234702984cab

Go further

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.