Our standing estimate
Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
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A money law conditions a power
70% · likely · confidence not registered
An appropriations, debt-limit or rescission law enacted in the window, signed or passed over a veto, carries a provision that bars, limits or conditions a named presidential action: a tariff, an emergency, force, a removal, an impoundment or a named order.
F-0381 · Open
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No: A money law conditions a power
27% · unlikely · confidence not registered
The documents published by 20 Feb 2029 show it did not happen in the window.
F-0382 · Open
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Not settled: A money law conditions a power
3% · almost no chance · confidence not registered
The record published by 20 Feb 2029 does not settle whether it happened.
F-0383 · Open
An earlier brief of ours asks this of an appropriations or debt-limit law to 13 Apr 2027; that forecast is scored separately.
The situation when it was sealed (9 Nov 2026). Spending and borrowing need new laws in 2027, and the majorities can attach conditions that bind once he signs.